Weekly Update Week Ended March 11, 2017

For a change the indices closed slightly lower on the week as concerns about the FOMC meeting this coming week seemed to put a lid on the excitement of the last few of months. Rightly so, in my opinion, how the Yellen led Fed seems to be pretty hot to trot on raising rates. They seem not to have learnt from the mistake they made by prematurely raising the interest rate back in December 2015 which led to global markets collapsing in January and February of last year. Yes, this time around things are different however, its not like economic growth globally is zipping along. India and China will still grow around the 6.5% rate but things here at home will be at the 2% to maybe 2.5% GDP growth rate towards the end of 2017. Across the pond, things are a lot more uncertain with Brexit/trigger of Article 50 looming large.  

Last week, we had Finisar report earnings which were received with a big raspberry by investors and that took down our optical component investments as well. The irony in that is that both Oclaro and Applied Optoelectronics reported outstanding results of there own and guidance was even better going forward. Be that as it may, I took the opportunity to add to our investment in both those companies. 

President Trump has still to unveil his infrastructure/tax cuts/repatriation plans and techland continues to be whippy as a result. A whole lot of chopping with small baby steps higher is how I look at it. It also seems like he has totally forgotten about his Executive Order on cybersecurity as well. Cest la vie. 

We ended the week up 34% for 2017 (gave back a little ground last week in the churn and burn) and that is upsetting to me despite the outperformance compared tp virtually any other site one would use as a comparative. Things will only get better going forward from this point on. 

Keep in mind that I continue to remain very high in cash and near cash and that has been the case since inception which makes the performance gratifying ti an extent however as I say almost every week, a lot of work remains to be done and we have only just begun as far as the year is concerned. No time to rest.

This week on the earnings front we have YY, JBL, ORCL, YRD, and ADBE all reporting earnings, so the week will provide some insight even though we have no exposure to the companies  at this time.

A continued reminder for all of us.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/12/finisar-miss-and-lowered-guidance-takes-down-the-optical-components-complex/2/#5aa351852a4b

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/12/will-alibaba-ever-be-able-to-move-higher/#38f7e81a16c6

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/07/disney-acquisition-of-netflix-imperative-as-espn-viewership-continues-to-decline/#1be89b657bf8

Our futures are indicating a flat to slightly open.

Until next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a great one for you. 

See all of you in our little room.

Be safe, 

J

Weekly Update Week Ended March 18, 2017

Good morning:

Yet another week where the indices mainly churned as the FOMC took up most of last weeks trading. Our interest rates were raised by 0.25% and the FOMC maintained a relatively benign stance for 2017 and said they continue to remain data dependent. The former (rate hike) was expected but many were expecting a more hawkish tone which did not happen. That's not to say that the Fed heads won't keep yammering about tightening any chance they get but it did mean that when the time came they chose to remain dovish.  

In addition, the Brexit/Article 50 trigger and its fallout still remains an issue and a potential overhang.

Last week, we saw a bounce back in our optical investments and even the Chinese stocks had a slightly uppish end to the week. FANG continues to churn while trending slightly higher. Last week I established new positions in Apple, Netflix, added to our position in AAOI, rolled over some AMZN, and re-stablished a position in MU (reporting earnings on Thursday).

We ended last week flat as a pancake (up 34%) despite the rather furious (it seemed at times) movement within our portfolio as markets pretty much marched in place despite the noise. 

We also have had a bit of noise this weekend from the G20 Summit with our government saying that  change will come to trade agreements soon. I have mentioned my thoughts on the issues in our little chat room already so will not repeat the stuff here.

Please be aware that I continue to be very high in cash and near-cash although I expect that position could change anytime I find an opportunity that warrants changing our allocations. 

This week we have all the Fed empty vessels up and about (seems like it)--?         


        Monday 3/20

o   Charles Evans (1:10 PM ET)

?         Tuesday 3/21

o   Esther George (12:00 PM ET)

o   Loretta Mester (6:00 PM ET)

?         Thursday 3/23

o   Janet Yellen (8:00 AM ET)

o   Neel Kashkari (12:00 PM ET)

?         Friday 3/24

o   Charles Evans (8:00 AM ET)

o   James Bullard (8:05 AM ET)

o   John Williams (8:30 AM ET)

On the earnings front we have MU on Thursday post the closing bell which is the sole representative of major techland earnings and also a company that we are currently long. (could change though).

A continued reminder for all of us.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

 Remember together we will all get there, wherever the tree may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/19/jabil-circuit-results-last-week-gave-apple-investors-a-second-heads-up-in-a-row/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170320#35f14e9b5b26

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/17/tesla-overhang-disappears-but-negativity-increases/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170320#53d198f54a76

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/13/intels-acquisition-of-mobileye-makes-a-strong-case-for-a-far-higher-nvidia-valuation/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170320#21e1ec736334

As has been the norm the last several weeks, our futures are indicating a lower start to the week.

Until next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a great one for you.

Be safe, 

j

Weekly Update Week Ended March 25, 2017

Good morning

Last week we had all three of our major indices end on a negative note. The Nasdaq, where I live, eat and breathe (LOL) was down 1.1% on the week, the Dow down 1.1% and the S&P was down 1%.  GOOGL dropped $37 points on the YouTube fiasco. AAPL ended the week up $0.65 per share. AMZN down $11, NFLX down about $3 despite making an all-time high on Tuesday. 

This week will bring us all sorts of noise from Wall Street pundits/gurus/swamis and my latest group of prognosticators-("The Kindly Uncles") waxing negative on the HCA issue on Friday. I think it's a positive and Prez Trump should use the lack of passage to find a way to get rid of Paul Ryan. In addition, we will have plenty of noise about GN triggering Article 50 this week as well.

Despite the negative tone to the markets last week, our optical components investments enjoyed a good week as did our Chinese investment albeit to a lesser extent. FANG continued churning in a couple of cases but was mostly lower on the week. Apple was up a hair. 

However, we still ended the week on a positive note albeit by 2% and are now up 36% for 2017 versus 34% the prior week. 

Last week we bought and sold Google puts, added to Apple, reduced Micron by half, added NFLX, opened a new position in BIDU and SINA,and added to NVDA. 

I continue to be very high in cash and near cash (66% of the overall account value) as I have always been from day 1.  That could change however we will see how the opportunities develop going forward. 

Yet again, this week brings us no respite from the Fedhead parade with the following on tap:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

 

?         Monday 3/27

o   Charles Evans (1:15 PM ET)

o   Dennis Kaplan (6:30 PM ET)

?         Tuesday 3/28

o   Esther George (12:45 PM ET)

o   Dennis Kaplan (1:00 PM ET)

?         Wednesday 3/29

o   Charles Evans (9:20 AM ET)

o   Eric Rosengren (11:30 AM ET)

o   John Williams (1:15 PM ET)

?         Thursday 3/30

o   Loretta Mester (9:45 AM ET)

o   Dennis Kaplan (11:00 AM ET)

o   John Williams (11:15 AM ET)

?         Friday 3/31

o   Neel Kashkari (10:00 AM ET)

o   James Bullard 10:30 AM ET)


We have nothing on the earnings front of interest except for Blackberry which will report on Friday and has interest for me from a perverse point of view. Namely, if BBRY is able to report a better set of numbers, how good will the sector be doing. 

Also, on Wednesday HPE will host an analyst meeting and we could get an idea on how enterprise business is doing and then on Thursday, Akamai will hold its analyst day as well. (Hmm)

A continued reminder for all of us.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

 Remember together we will all get there, wherever the tree may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/26/google-does-the-stock-have-a-problem/#44db31ba190a

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/26/seems-like-the-wall-street-hype-machine-desperately-wants-the-markets-down-what-should-you-do/#aecb27d2529f

As always, our futures are indicating a whoosh down open with early futures at lows of the day as Wall Street tries to spin the Healthcare debacle into the end of the world. 

Cest la vie.

Until next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a great one for you.

Be safe, 

Jay

Weekly Update Week Ended March 25, 2017

Good morning

Last week we had all three of our major indices end on a negative note. The Nasdaq, where I live, eat and breathe (LOL) was down 1.1% on the week, the Dow down 1.1% and the S&P was down 1%.  GOOGL dropped $37 points on the YouTube fiasco. AAPL ended the week up $0.65 per share. AMZN down $11, NFLX down about $3 despite making an all-time high on Tuesday. 

This week will bring us all sorts of noise from Wall Street pundits/gurus/swamis and my latest group of prognosticators-("The Kindly Uncles") waxing negative on the HCA issue on Friday. I think it's a positive and Prez Trump should use the lack of passage to find a way to get rid of Paul Ryan. In addition, we will have plenty of noise about GN triggering Article 50 this week as well.

Despite the negative tone to the markets last week, our optical components investments enjoyed a good week as did our Chinese investment albeit to a lesser extent. FANG continued churning in a couple of cases but was mostly lower on the week. Apple was up a hair. 

However, we still ended the week on a positive note albeit by 2% and are now up 36% for 2017 versus 34% the prior week. 

Last week we bought and sold Google puts, added to Apple, reduced Micron by half, added NFLX, opened a new position in BIDU and SINA,and added to NVDA. 

I continue to be very high in cash and near cash (66% of the overall account value) as I have always been from day 1.  That could change however we will see how the opportunities develop going forward. 

Yet again, this week brings us no respite from the Fedhead parade with the following on tap:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

 

?         Monday 3/27

o   Charles Evans (1:15 PM ET)

o   Dennis Kaplan (6:30 PM ET)

?         Tuesday 3/28

o   Esther George (12:45 PM ET)

o   Dennis Kaplan (1:00 PM ET)

?         Wednesday 3/29

o   Charles Evans (9:20 AM ET)

o   Eric Rosengren (11:30 AM ET)

o   John Williams (1:15 PM ET)

?         Thursday 3/30

o   Loretta Mester (9:45 AM ET)

o   Dennis Kaplan (11:00 AM ET)

o   John Williams (11:15 AM ET)

?         Friday 3/31

o   Neel Kashkari (10:00 AM ET)

o   James Bullard 10:30 AM ET)


We have nothing on the earnings front of interest except for Blackberry which will report on Friday and has interest for me from a perverse point of view. Namely, if BBRY is able to report a better set of numbers, how good will the sector be doing. 

Also, on Wednesday HPE will host an analyst meeting and we could get an idea on how enterprise business is doing and then on Thursday, Akamai will hold its analyst day as well. (Hmm)

A continued reminder for all of us.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

 Remember together we will all get there, wherever the tree may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/26/google-does-the-stock-have-a-problem/#44db31ba190a

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/26/seems-like-the-wall-street-hype-machine-desperately-wants-the-markets-down-what-should-you-do/#aecb27d2529f

As always, our futures are indicating a whoosh down open with early futures at lows of the day as Wall Street tries to spin the Healthcare debacle into the end of the world. 

Cest la vie.

Until next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a great one for you.

Be safe, 

Jay

Weekly Update Week Ended April 1, 2017

Good Morning

Last week we had the Dow finish higher by 0.03%, the S&P added 0.08%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.4%. On the week, Google was up $12, Apple was higher by $3, NFLX added almost $6, Amazon shot up $41 while FB added about $2 per share respectively. Our Chinese basket and our fiber optic plays were mixed mostly.

Having said that, the jaysomaney.com account is now up 61% year-to-date compared to 36% the prior week. A decent week for us despite the back and forth on the HCA issue and the beginnings of the China/US trade issue coming front and center. 

This week will bring us plenty of noise and shouting and copious tears and sweaty-palmed hand-wringing from the kindly uncles and the darksiders who will not stop on the US-China trade front. My take is after all is said and done, the two heads of state will find a way to resolve the situation fairly amicably since neither side can afford to get into a "spitting" contest with the other. 

Last week we started the week off by selling our Tesla calls for almost a triple (two seperate occasions), sold Amazon call against our long stock position which ends dup getting our shares called away (heavier cash position now), sold and rolled our Netflix calls (extended expiration), added to Google calls (big position there-if stock starts moving), added to AAOI calls, added to OCLR calls and finally re-entered a position in Tesla calls.

The cash levels in the jaysomaney.com account continue to be very high but for now I am okay with it. We shall see.

This week once again brings us a respite from the Fed heads but we do have the following confirmed events regarding the Fed:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

 

?         Monday, 4/3

o   Jeffrey Lacker (5:00 PM ET)

?         Wednesday, 4/5

o   Fed Meeting Minutes from March

On the earnings front we have nothing in techland but we do have the usual plethora of economic data both here at home and overseas.

NTAP has an analyst meeting on Wednesday is the only event of note on tap this week.

I know all of you are sick of reading this but I feel I remiss if I don't mention it in every weekly missive to all of you just so that it stays with us through the trading week. 

A continued reminder for all of us.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

 Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/03/tesla-comes-through-with-record-delivery-numbers-disappointing-the-darkside/#1b0a1d7d7100

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/02/shares-of-google-surprisingly-finish-up-on-the-week-but-are-a-laggard-in-2017/#1d6a75613666

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/02/apples-assembled-in-india-dream-almost-reality/#429ad1f32880

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/02/not-yet-blackberry-time-despite-the-progress/#1d9b307d613f

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/31/driving-tesla-into-this-weekends-expected-q1-delivery-and-production-numbers-release/#164baeac780f

As is the norm our early futures are indicating a flat to slightly lower open despite global markets mostly higher to start the week.

Until the next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a profitable one for each of you.

Stay safe

Jay