Weekly Update Ended July 29, 2017

Last week was generally upbeat in techland saved for that staged event by JPM with their "me-too" macro call on Thursday which initially had no effect on the markets Thursday morning. However, by noon or so that day, the algos turned negative full blast and the Nazz got hit for over 110 points intra-day before closing down about 40 points on the day. This Wall Street staged events are getting more frequent and will continue to happen regularly as our markets keep scaling new highs.

Earnings in mega-cap techland turned out to be an anti-climax as far as Amazon and Google were concerned with both stock dropping 3-4% after their respective results however Facebook was the saving grace last week. I traded out on both Googl and Amazon prior to their print which was the only move to make as far as I was concerned. I received a couple of emails why I didnt short (buy puts) given that I had the foresight to sell ahead of the number?  LOL..everyone is an Einstein in hindsight. That is always true. Secondly, I did not sell because I knew their numbers would be perceived as disappointments. No one can predict that and if someone tells you they can, they are flat-out lying to you. I sold because the R/R was not in favor of staying long any more. To me, it was not. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly higher with the exception of the Nikkei which was down 35 points or 0.17%, Hong Kong traded higher by 345 points or 1.28%, Mumbai higher by 205 points or 0.63%, Seoul closing up 2 or 0.07%, Taiwan higher by 4 or 0.04% and the Big Daddy in Asia, Shanghai trading higher by 20 points or up 0.61%. 

Across the pond markets are mixed with the CAC down 0.09%, the DAX higher by 0.18% and the FTSE is higher by 0.32%.

Our futures are slightly green with the e-mins up 2 while Nazz futures are higher by 8 points although we still have a long time to go before our markets open up for the day and for the week.

Early/overnight UGs/DGs are in our little room already. At least, the ones that are out thus far.

The jaysomaney.com account ended up 207% year-to-date versus 175% from a week ago and 125% two weeks ago. Not shabby. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $823,934 with $531,144 of that in cash. In the prior week ago period, we were up 175% YTD, and liquidation value from the closing levels a week ago was at $738,124 just as a point of easy reference for all of you. 

As a few of you have pointed out in the past and continue to do so, we are very cash heavy in the account and that is not the optimal situation however I find that with high cash levels, it helps me stay calm when Wall Street decides to stage one of their "generate commish at all costs" events. I do realize that earning 1%/year is not optimal but neither is the alternative as far as I am concerned, especially in options trading. 

I am more than happy to buy stock if you all are okay with that. (Email me jay@jaysomaney.com)

Please check your inboxes for a list of trades from last week.

Here we go with the usual part of the update:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

This week the calendar was not turned in to me on time so we will have to switch to another format for key events this week.

Notable earnings reports: Pandora (NYSE:P) and Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) on July 31; Under Armour (NYSE:UAA), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), FireEye (NASDAQ:FEYE), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN) on August 1; Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Fitbit (NYSE:FIT) on August 2; GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO), Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) on August 3; Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.ABRK.B), Cigna (NYSE:CI) on August 4.

Expected IPO pricings: Clementia Pharmaceuticals (Pending:CMTA) onAugust 2, Venator Materials (Pending:VNTR) on August 3.

IPO quiet period expirations: Snap (NYSE:SNAP), Laureate Education (NASDAQ:LAUR), Bison Capital Acquisition (NASDAQ:BCACU) and Constellation Alpha Capital (NASDAQ:CNACU) on July 31; Altice USA (NYSE:ATUS), Safety, Income & Growth (Pending:SAFE) and SG Blocks (NASDAQ:SGBX) on August 1.

Secondary offering lockup expirations: James River Corp (NASDAQ:JRVR) on July 31; Smart Sand (NASDAQ:SND) on August 1; Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Artana Therapeutics (NASDAQ:PETX), Interpace Diagnostics (NASDAQ:IDXG) and Ignyta (NASDAQ:RXDX) on August 2; GoDaddy (NYSE:GDDY), American Superconductor (NASDAQ:AMSC) and AmpliPhi Biosciences (NYSEMKT:APHB) on August 3.

Notable annual meeting: Bristow Group (NYSE:BRS) on August 2; Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA), Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) and Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) on August 3.

For your reading pleasure:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/27/if-growth-is-back-at-baidu-shares-could-be-cheap/#3e5924601035

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/27/facebook-reports-strong-numbers-across-the-board-second-half-caution-reiterated/#4e898ef11040

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/26/wall-street-loves-facebook-into-earnings-tonight/#7d69de013e20

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/26/amd-blowout-signals-continued-opportunity-in-nvidia-and-an-another-sector-as-well/#6bda3e3e3727

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/25/google-is-giving-investors-a-chance-yet-again/

Just a quick reminder that the subscription rates for jaysomaney.com went up on July 22, 2017. The rate change will affect everyone on a rolling basis. So for instance, for those of you that paid their monthly subscription on July 21, 2017, the new rate for you will not take effect until August 21, 2017. For those of you that had their subscription renew on July 22, 2017, you are merely required to hit the link on jaysomaney.com and you will be redirected to Paypal where you just have to select the new payment, $99 or $109 (includes text/sms alerts).


Simple as that.


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your trades/dice rolls/coin tosses.


Be safe, 

Jay

Weekly Update Ended July 22, 2017

Last week was a generally positive week in techland thanks to Netflix kicking things off in the sector on a very positive note a week ago. Like I have said, Netflix is a subscriber addition investment and they are adding subs impressively. Also helping matters, however slightly, is their earnings beat which also beat Street estimates handily.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly higher with the exception of the Nikkei which was down 124 points or 0.62%, Hong Kong traded higher by 141 points or 0.53%, Mumbai higher by 217 points or 0.68%, Seoul closing up 1 or 0.06%, Taiwan higher by 25 or 0.24% and the Big Daddy in Asia, Shanghai trading lower by 13 points or up 0.39%. 

Across the pond markets are mostly lower on the USD taking a pounding (lol) with the CAC down 0.2%, the DAX lower by 0.4% and the FTSE is lower by 0.92%.

Our futures are slightly red with the e-mins down 2.5 while Nazz futures are lower by 8 points although we still have a long time to go before our markets open up for the day and for the week.

Early/overnight UGs/DGs are in our little room.

The jaysomaney.com account ended up 175% year-to-date versus 125% from a week ago and 77% two weeks ago. Not shabby. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $738,124 with $469,664 of that in cash. In the prior week ago period, we were up 125% YTD, and liquidation value from the closing levels a week ago was at $604,678 just as a point of easy reference for all of you.   

Please check your inboxes for a list of trades from last week.

Here we go with the usual part of the update:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

This week we yet again have to deal with the FOMC meeting tomorrow which will conclude at 2 pm on Wednesday with an announcement on interest rates (no change) and the accompanying policy outlook.

On the ER front, we are smack-dab in the middle of things:

Earnings

  • Mon 7/24
    • Open: Philips (PHG), Manpower (MAN), Halliburton (HAL), Illinois Tool (ITW) Arconic (ARNC), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), V.F. Corp (VFC), RPM Inc (RPM), Lennox Int'l (LII), Hasbro (HAS), TCF Financials (TCF), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), Bank of Hawaii (BOH), Helix Energy (HLX), Opus Bank (OPB), Scorpio Bulkers (SALT), Silicom Limited (SILC)
    • Close: Alphabet (GOOG), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Celanese (CE), Everest Re (RE), Swift Transportation (SWFT), Crane (CR), Woodward (WWD), Werner Enterprises (WERN), Hexcel (HXL), HNI (HNI), Logitech Intl SA (LOGI), Cadence Design (CDNS), J&J Snack Foods (JJFS), American Campus Communites (ACC), Core Labs (CLB), Heidrick & Struggles (HSII), Moelis (MC), HomeStreet (HMST), NBT Bancorp (NBTB), Equity Commonwealth (EQC), Rambus (RMBS), Independent Bank Group (IBTX), CryoLife (CRY), Agree Realty (ADC)
  • Tues 7/25
    • Open: General Motors (GM), United Tech (UTX), Centene (CNC), Caterpillar (CAT), HCA (HCA), 3M (MMM), DuPont (DD), McDonald's (MCD), Eli Lilly (LLY), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Supervalu (SVU), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Biogen (BIIB), Seagate Tech (STX), Interpublic (IPG), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), AK Steel (AKS), Watsco (WSO), Pentair (PNR), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Graphic Packaging (GPK), Allegheny Tech (ATI), McDermott (MDR), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), TransUnion (TRU),
    • Close: AT&T (T), Express Scripts (ESRX), Chubb (CB), Amgen (AMGN), Texas Instruments (TXN), Canadian Natl Rail (CNI), U.S. Steel (X), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Universal Health (UHS), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Zions Bancorp (ZION), Equity Residential (EQR), Akamai Tech (AKAM), IDEX Corp (IEX), RenaissanceRe (RNR), CoreLogic (CLGX), Shutterfly (SFLY), iRobot (IRBT)
  • Wed 7/26
    • Open: United Micro (UMC), Ford Motor (F), Boeing (BA), Anthem (ANTM), Coca-Cola (KO), General Dynamics (GD), Northrop Grumman (NOC), CNH Industrial (CNHI), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Lear (LEA), NextEra Energy (NEE), Ingersoll-Rand (IR), Waste Management (WM), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Corning (GLW), Labratory Corp (LH), Hilton (HLT), Alaska Air (ALK), STMicroelectronics (STM), Ryder System (R), Hershey Foods (HSY), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Owens Corning (OC), Hess (HES), Brinks (BCO), NASDAQ (NDAQ), Tupperware (TUP), Six Flags (SIX), FLIR Systems (FLIR), IMAX (IMAX), Angie's List (ANGI)
    • Close: Facebook (FB), Suncor Energy (SU), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Whole Foods (WFM), PayPal (PYPL), XL Group plc (XL), Discover Financial Services (DFS), Lam Research (LRCX), O'Reilly Auto (ORLY), Barrick Gold (ABX), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Raymond James (RJF), Packaging Corp (PKG), Equifax (EFX), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), F5 Networks (FFIV), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), NETGEAR (NTGR)
  • Thurs 7/27
    • Open: Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), McKesson (MCK), Verizon (VZ), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU),Comcast (CMCSA), Valero Energy (VLO), ArcelorMittal (MT), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), UPS (UPS), Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Dow Chemical (DOW), Charter Comm (CHTR), Johnson Controls (JCI), ConocoPhillips (COP), Raytheon (RTN), Southwest Air (LUV), Intl Paper (IP), Nokia (NOK)
    • Close: Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Flex (FLEX), Starbucks (SBUX), AFLAC (AFL), Western Digital (WDC), Hartford Financial (HIG), Principal Financial (PFG), Edison (EIX), Reinsurance Group of America (RGA), Stryker (SYK), Unum Group (UNM), Expedia (EXPE), Republic Services (RSG), Mohawk (MHK), Eastman Chemical (EMN), Eversource Energy (ES), National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
  •  Fri 7/28
    • Open: Banco Santander (BSAC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Yandex N.V. (YNDX), Merck (MRK), Imperial Oil (IMO), LyondellBasell (LYB), AbbVie (ABBV), Sonic Automotive (SAH), Baker Hughes (BHGE), Rockwell Collins (COL), Weyerhaeuser (WY), Franklin Resources (BEN), Santander Consumer USA (SC), Welltower (HCN), Iron Mountain (IRM), Barnes Group (B), First Bancorp (FBP)
    • Close:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Friday 7/28
    • Neel Kashkari (1:20 PM ET)

For your reading pleasure:


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/23/the-12-billion-investment-in-china-unicom-could-spur-the-next-leg-up-for-lumentum-oclaro-et-al/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170724#3e5aec8b7b18


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/23/google-earnings-tomorrow-could-be-confusing/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170724#34ab853b11ca


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/20/despite-the-crying-the-first-us-china-comprehensive-economic-dialogue-was-better-than-expected/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170724#49cc08cf9132


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/18/ignore-nvidia-at-your-own-peril/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170724#5d4c588043a1


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/18/netflix-busts-a-move-on-terrific-subscriber-additions-despite-seasonality/#3e1cf29850be


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/17/its-the-netflix-earnings-show-tonight/#420d4b341af4


Just a quick reminder that the subscription rates for jaysomaney.com went up on July 22, 2017. The rate change will affect everyone on a rolling basis. So for instance, for those of you that paid their monthly subscription on July 21, 2017, the new rate for you will not take effect until August 21, 2017. For those of you that had their subscription renew on July 22, 2017, you are merely required to hit the link on jaysomaney.com and you will be redirected to Paypal where you just have to select the new payment, $99 or $109 (includes text/sms alerts).


Simple as that.


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your trades/dice rolls/coin tosses.


Be safe, 

Jay

Weekly Update Ended July 15, 2017 & An Important Change From Next Week

Last week was a mixed bag for us however, techland came back with a bit of tepid buying as we head into earnings season. A few of the big banks reported at the end of the week and as expected, the reaction was muted given the run they have already enjoyed.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with the Nikkei up 19 points or 0.09%, Hong trading higher by 69 points or 0.26%, Mumbai higher by 56 points or 0.17%, Seoul closing up 10 or 0.43%, Taiwan higher by 14 or 0.13% and the Big Daddy in Asia, Shanghai trading lower by 46 points or -1.46% despite a nice GDP beat (6.9%) on worries about the big CP (Communist Party) pow-wow in that country. The worry is that the CP will further tighten up regulations in the banking, financial and insurance sectors in a more coordinated way. The selling in China was mainly by FII's (foreign institutional investors) which is usually a nice contrary indicator almost every time. The fact that HK is up more than likely is proof of my statement. We shall see.

Across the pond, the CAC is flat, the DAX is up 0.12% and the FTSE is higher by 0.42%.

Our futures are slightly green with the e-mins up 1.75 while Nazz futures are higher by 8 points although we still have a long time to go before our markets open up for teh day and for the week. 

It is also too early for any big UGs/DGs as yet so we will have to wait on that and read it in our little room. 

The jaysomaney.com account ended up 125% year-to-date versus 77% from a week ago, a huge weekly improvement however one looks at it. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $604,678 with $367,844 of that in cash. In the prior week ago period, we were up 77% YTD, and liquidation value from the closing levels a weekago was at $474,822 just as a point of easy reference for all of you.   

Please check your inboxes for a list of trades from last week.

Here we go with the usual part of the update:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

No scheduled Fed head speeches for this week as per my calendar although I am sure they will pop up and here and there impromptu. 

On the ER from we are now in the thick of things--

Earnings

  • Mon 7/17
    • Open: BlackRock (BLK)
    • Close: Netflix (NFLX), Brown & Brown (BRO), Select Comfort (SCSS), Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS)
  • Tues 7/18
    • Open: Ericsson (ERIC), UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Novartis AG (NVS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Progressive (PGR), Harley-Davidson (HOG), TD Ameritrade (AMTD), Comerica (CMA), Prologis (PLD), Synovus (SNV), Medidata Solutions (MDSO), Neogen (NEOG)
    • Close: IBM (IBM), CSX (CSX), Universal Forest (UFPI), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Navient (NAVI), Wintrust Fin (WTFC), Hancock Holding (HBHC), ADTRAN (ADTN), Legacy Texas Group (LTXB), Exponent (EXPO), United Financials (UBNK)
  • Wed 7/19
    • Open: Morgan Stanley (MS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Textron (TXT), Grainger (GWW), ASML (ASML), M&T Bank (MTB), AVANGRID (AGR), Northern Trust (NTRS), Diebold Nixdorf (DBD)
    • Close: T-Mobile (TMUS), American Express (AXP), Qualcomm (QCOM), C.H. Robinson (CHRW), Alcoa (AA), Steel Dynamics (STLD), United Rentals (URI)
  • Thurs 7/20
    • Open: ABB Ltd (ABB), Philip Morris International (PM), Abott Labs (ABT), Travelers (TRV), SAP AG (SAP), Union Pacific (UNP), Nucor (NUE), Danaher (DHR), PPG Industries (PPG), Blackstone (BX), BNY Mellon (BK), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), KeyCorp (KEY), Polaris Industries (PII), Home Bancshares (HOMB)
    • Close: Microsoft (MSFT), Capital One (COF), Visa (V), eBay (EBAY), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), athenaHealth (ATHN), Assoc Banc-Corp (ASB)
  • Fri 7/21
    • Open: General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), Schlumberger (SLB), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Autoliv (ALV), SunTrust Banks (STI), Fifth Third (FITB), Regions Financial (RF), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Huntington Banc (HBAN), Moody's (MCO), Encanca (ECA), KC Southern (KSU), Gentex (GNTX), Webster Financial (WBS),


For your reading pleasure---


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/14/acacia-communications-sandbags-investors-again-using-the-same-company-specific-quality-control-issue/


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/14/applied-optoelectronics-once-again-positively-pre-announced/


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/12/one-google-fine-tossed-out-by-the-french-court-one-more-to-go/


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/12/ignore-the-rampant-negativity-in-apple-the-proof-of-the-pudding-is-in-foxconn-data-this-morning/


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/10/qualcomm-seeking-a-ban-on-u-s-iphone-shipments-is-much-ado-over-nothing/


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/10/apple-watch-and-apple-airpod-demand-continues-to-easily-outpace/


This final part is a bit of housekeeping that is necessary at this point. starting July 22, the subscription rates for jaysomaney.com will be increasing to $99 and $109 (with text alerts) per month. The cost of maintaining the site continues and also I am getting a lot of feedback from people who try the site that at $49 and $59 the rates seem the proverbial "too good too be true." 


For the next week, everyone will see a pop up a few times a highlighting the new rates going forward. How it will work is as follows: AS your subscription come sup for renewal (starting on July 22, 2017) you will be redirected to your PayPal account where you have to agree to the new rates (whether you choose $99/month or $109/month). 


For example,  if your subscription renews on the 21st of July, you will be renewed at the old rate but on August 21 you will be charged the new rate. If your sub renews on the 22nd of July, you will be charged the new rate starting that day. 


I hope this change does not inconvenience you in any way.


Please feel free to contact me directly if you have any suggestions or comments at jay@jaysomaney.com or jatin@jaysomaney.com if you require any technical/payment related assistance.


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your trades/investments/dice rolls/coin tosses.


Be safe, 
Jay

Weekly Update Ended July 8, 2017

Last week the tech wreck continued for the most part of the week until this past Friday when cooler heads prevailed (maybe?). Again, it's not like the fundamentals of tech companies has changed nor has their revenues/earnings growth potential deteriorated. In fact, from a valuation perspective techland has become a whole lot cheaper given the drubbing the sector has taken in the last several weeks. 

This past month or so underperformance in tech was triggered by Wall Street which manufactured the "fat fingered trade in early June however that is now over and done with. Done and dusted as they say.

This past Friday, we saw some sharp upward movement in techland as ER season now is about a week away beginning with Netflix early next week.

Overnight, Asian markets enjoyed a good day and as of this writing, the three major EC markets are also hanging in nicely. Our futures are a mixed bag thus far with the e-mins mostly flat while Nazz futures are higher by 10.

However, our futures mean a hill of beans on most days and as I have been saying for years, do not trust our futures as they are as easily manipulated as our markets are. Has been that way for many years now. It's part of the arena we have chosen to make our living in. 

The big sellsider research this morning has been the PT raise on Nvidia by two firms, one of which took their price target all the way up to $200 per share. 

The jaysomaney.com account ended up 77% year-to-date versus 87% from a week ago as all our positions ended lower on the week. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $474,822 with $355,964 of that in cash. Liquidation value from the closing levels a week ago was at $501,946 just as a point of easy reference for all of you. 

Please check your inboxes for trades that I did last week. 

Here we go with the usual part of the update:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

This week brings us the usual heavy dose of Fedhead speeches which means I have to be on my toes as always-

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 7/10
    • John C. Williams (11:05 PM ET)
  • Tuesday 7/11
    • Lael Brainard (12:00 PM ET)
    • Neel Kashkari (1:20 PM ET)
  • Wednesday 7/12
    • Janet Yellen (10:00 AM ET)
    • Ester George (2:15 PM)
  • Thursday 7/13
    • Janet Yellen (10:00 AM ET)
    • Charles Evans (11:30 AM ET)
  • Friday 7/14
    • Robert Kaplan (9:30 AM ET)

We also have ER season kicking off this week--

Earnings

  • Mon 7/10
    • Open: Helen of Troy (HELE)
    • Close: VOXX Intl (VOXX), WD-40 (WDFC), Barracuda Networks (CUDA)
  • Tues 7/11
    • Open: PepsiCo (PEP) 
    • Close: AAR Corp (AIR)
  • Wed 7/12
    • Open: Fastenal (FAST), MSC Industrial (MSM), Barnes and Noble Education (BNED), Banks of the Ozarks (OZRK)
    • Close:
  • Thurs 7/13
    • Open: Commerce Bancshares (CBSH), Peak Resorts (SKIS)
    • Close:
  • Fri 7/14
    • Open: Infosys (INFY), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), PNC (PNC), First Republic Bank (FRC)
    • Close:

SemiCon kicks off this week as well.

For your reading pleasure, there is not much this week, as I was in my usual three month testing week for my health so did not do much writing last week. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/07/03/micron-receives-a-beatdown-after-a-beat-and-raise/#31e4ef9d1750

Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your trades/investments/dice rolls/coin tosses.

Be safe, 

Jay

Weekly Update Ended July 1, 2017

Last week we saw techland continue to get taken apart with virtually no respite from the beat-down. There is no real (valid) rhyme or reason why techand is getting beat-up however the trigger point seems to have been the orchestrated "fat-finger trade" three weeks and change ago.  Of course, that is all in hindsight. Not even the better than expected Chinese PMI data last week was able to prevent the China basket from getting hit which is lumped in with techland in any case. Within the opto-comp sector, AAOI received a nice initiation at the end of the week with a $96 PT however the sector still ended up lower on the week. 

Cest la vie.

This too shall pass. It always does.

This morning, yet again our futures are higher but as I have said on many occasions that our futures are easily manipulated and have ceased being a good predictor markets at least a decade ago 

Given the July 4th weekend despite the half day of trading today, I don't expect any major notes from the sellside in techland although be braced for negativity given the fact that trading will be thin today. Perfect time to exaggerate the negative effects on an article, note or thesis. 

The jaysomaney.com account ended up 87% year-to-date which was a serious beat-down from a week ago and the liquidation value dropped to $501,946 as of the last trading day last week. As would be expected (given that I was adding last week admittedly timidly) the cash in the account is now at $371,084.

As always, please check your inboxes for trade alerts for last week. 

Please read the following carefully as I am sure you always do. 

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. We had some comments last week and the week before that July calls are not a marathon but a sprint however that depends on one's perspective. Always remember someone's poison is someone else's nectar. It is what it is and always will be.

Now I wanted to quickly address the unpleasantness we had last week in our room last week. There have always been and always will be folks who criticize other people. Yes, we have had a rough go the last several weeks. No can be more upset than I am.  I can easily hedge in this account but it is just not large enough to absorb the 1% (size adjusted) cost of a permanent weekly hedge in order to protect partially from the downside like we have seen. In the fund, we spend about 0.25-0.50

I can easily hedge in this account but it is just not large enough to absorb the 1% (size adjusted) cost of a permanent weekly hedge in order to protect only partially from the downside like we have have seen and seem to see almost once a month. In the fund, we spend about 0.25-0.50 bips/week on a rolling hedge (partial) however given the size of the fund I am able to absorb the costs of the hedge and still outperform handily. Try it for yourselves.   

Once we recover from this recent selloff, I plan to move to the new system which should reduce the impact of these painful periods that we go through especially in techland. 

Just as some of you have suggested that mute button is also coming. 

Finally, I appreciate all the words of support and confidence that a few of you expressed that day in the room.

Okay moving on--

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 7/3
    • James Bullard (4:35 AM ET)
  • Thursday 7/6
    • John C Williams (4:05 AM ET)
    • Jerome Powell (10:00 AM ET)

Q1 Sector Performance (percentage of Positive Surprise):

  • Information Tech: 84.85%
  • Healthcare: 81.67%
  • Industrials: 79.41%
  • Financials: 78.46%
  • Consumer Discretionary: 76.54%
  • Utilities: 71.43%
  • Materials: 68.0%
  • Energy: 62.86%
  • Real Estate: 54.84%
  • Consumer Staples: 51.35%
  • Telecom Svcs: 0%


Take a look at the highest positive earnings surprise for Q1-techland. No matter how bleak techland is and has been for the last several weeks, it is the go-to sector for most investors. No matter how much they talk it down. Just wanted to show you all the facts as they were. Techland will be back in favor.

We are very light on earnings this coming week so at least we catch a break there--

Earnings

  • Mon 7/3
    • Open: Int'l Speedway (ISCA)
    • Close:
  • Tues 7/4
    • Open:
    • Close:
  •  Wed 7/5
    • Open:
    • Close: Herman Miller (MLHR), PriceSmart (PSMT), Yum China (YUMC)
  • Thurs 7/6
    • Open: AZZ (AZZ)
    •  Close: Cherokee (CHKE)
  •  Fri 7/7
    •  Open:
    • Close:


For your reading pleasure--


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/30/micron-delivers-on/#41d8b4e03d15


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/29/its-the-micron-earnings-show-after-the-close-of-regular-market-trading-today/#13694613743c


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/28/alibaba-in-two-big-offline-deals-solidifying-the-futures-for-shareholders/#75999ed646f1


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/28/toshiba-slaps-a-billion-dollar-lawsuit-on-western-digital/#1da9e5a229ac


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/27/the-western-digital-and-toshiba-saga-is-far-from-over/#24a302762aa9


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your investments/trades/dice rolls/coin tosses.


Be safe, 

Jay