Weekly Update Ended Nov 18, 2017

Last week was another week where the indices were basically flat to slightly higher on continued fallout from the mess in Washington. The Nasdaq finished higher on the week thanks to that spectacular rally this past Thursday but the Dow and S&P were lower on the week. 

For the week among the FAANG names:

Apple finished lower by $4 and change;

Bezos was up $4 and change;

Googly was down about $10

Zuck was higher by a few dimes

Flixsta was up a buckeroo.

However as all of you know a flat week plays havoc in options-land and so it was gratifying to see that our portfolio hung in there, thanks to gains in the smaller Chinese companies. I am thrilled that our mini-account is now up 30% in two months and while the absolute dollars is not much to write home about, its the returns all of us should be focused on. To be up 30% in a month and a half is not easy. Take a look at the performance of 95% of the mutual funds out there.

Moving on to the China basket:

Within the BATS quartet:

Baidu was up a couple of bucks on the week;

Jack (BABA) was down a buck and small change,

Tencent (TCEHY) added about $2.50/share

and SINA was higher by half a buck or so.

With ER season now mostly behind us wth the exception of a couple of names in our China basket, the focus will now turn to Holiday sales and of course the political mess in Washington and across the pond with Brexit and German political issues.

Our futures are indicating a lower open, as usual, with e-mins down 2.25 and Nazz futures off by 2.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 244% year-to-date versus 243% from a week ago and 234% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $905,246 (plus the $6,483 in the min-account) which gives us $911,729 in net liquidation with $671,915 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up quite a bit from the prior week.

Cash in the account is admittedly high and I am still looking for optimal deployment of that cash. Given the fact that not only are our indices at all-time highs but so are global indices at all-time highs, a bit of caution might not be a bad thing at all. However, having said that, there are still a few stocks that are still cheap despite their absolute performance. 

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).

Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)

Buy QQQ Puts

Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer

Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

We are light on the economic data front this week as well on the ER front too and thankfully we have zero scheduled Fed speeches this week.

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (11/20)

Leading Index (10:00): 0.6% expected

 

Tuesday (11/21)

Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (8:30)

Existing Home Sales (10:00): 5.41m expected

 

Wednesday (11/22)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Durable Goods Orders (8:30): 0.3% expected

Durables Ex Transportation (8:30): 0.4% expected

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (8:30): 0.3% expected

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

U. of Mich. Sentiment (10:00): 98.0 expected

 

Thursday (11/23)

Markets Closed for Thanksgiving

 

Friday (11/24)

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (9:45)

Markit US Services PMI (9:45)

Markit US Composite PMI (9:45)


Earnings

?        Mon 11/20

?        Open: Bitauto Holdings (BITA) Already declared and in our lttle chat room

?        Close: Vipshop (VIPS), ZTO Express (ZTO), Agilent (A), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Intuit (INTU), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

?        Tues 11/21

?        Open: Lowes (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Jacobs (JEC), Analog Devices (ADI), Burlington Stores (BURL), Dycom (DY), DSW (DSW), Daktronics (DAKT)

?        Close: HP (HPQ), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Salesforce (CRM), GameStop (GME), Baozun (BZUN), Guess? (GES)

?        Wed 11/22

?        Open: Deere (DE)

?        Close:

?        Thurs 11/23

?        Open:

?        Close:

?        Fri 11/24

?        Open:

?        Close:

Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our tradesm investments and dice throws.

Stay safe

Jay

Weekly Update Ended Nov 25, 2017

I hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving weekend with family, loved ones, friends, and food. Now its back to the grind and the final push into year-end begins starting this morning. No rest for the weary, no rest for the wicked, no rest for any of us.

Last week, the indices finished at yet another all-time high and so did our main account while the mini-account is also up nicely in the two months or so since I funded it.

For the week, the FAANG names also continued higher as did the indices:

NASDAQ up 1.6%

DOW up 0.08%

S&P up 0.09%

Zuck up 2.1%

AAPL up 2.8%

Bezos up 5%

NFLX up  1.3%

GOOGL up 2%

Among the BATS names:

Baidu was up 4.2%

Jack Ma was higher by 3.3%

TCEHY climbed 2.7%

and SINA was up 2.7%

In comparison, the jaysomaney.com (main) account ended nicely higher on the week and is now up 261% year-to-date versus 244% from a week ago and 243% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $952,290 (plus the $6,938 in the min-account) which gives us $959,228 in net liquidation with $689,005 of that in cash (includes cash in the mini-account), up a bit from the prior week.

The mini account is now up 39% in the two months or so since I funded it with an initila starting amount of $5,000 (taken from the main account) and of the $6,938 in liquidation value in that account, $4,040 of that is in cash. Staying true to my strategy of a decade and a half. "Dance with the one that brung you," so to speak.

This next part is getting repetitive, I know, but it helps answer those email queries which is why I leave it in.

Cash in the accounts is admittedly high and I am still looking for optimal deployment of that cash. Given the fact that not only are our indices at all-time highs but so are global indices at all-time highs, a bit of caution might not be a bad thing at all. However, having said that, there are still a few stocks that are still cheap despite their absolute performance. 

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go, as always, with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).

Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)

Buy QQQ Puts

Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer

Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

We are back to a week heavy with Fedhead speeches as follows:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

?        Monday 11/27

o   Neel Kashkari (6:30 PM ET)

o   William Dudley (7:00 PM ET)

?        Tuesday 11/28

o   William Dudley (9:15 AM ET)

o   Jerome Powell (10:00 AM ET)

?        Wednesday 11/29

o   William Dudley (8:30 AM ET)

o   Janet Yellen (10:00 AM ET)

o   John Williams (1:50 PM ET)

?        Thursday 11/30 

o   Robert Kaplan (1:00 PM ET)

?        Friday 12/01

o   James Bullard (9:05 AM ET)

o   Robert Kaplan (9:30 AM ET)


On the economic data front, we also have a full plate:


Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (11/27)

New Home Sales (10:00): 615k expected

Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (10:30): 24.0 expected

 

Tuesday (11/28)

Wholesale Inventories MoM (8:30)

FHFA House Price Index MoM (9:00)

Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10:00): 123.8 expected

Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (10:00): 14 expected

 

Wednesday (11/29)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

GDP Annualized QoQ (8:30): 3.3% expected

Personal Consumption (8:30)

GDP Price Index (8:30): 2.2% expected

Core PCE QoQ (8:30)

Pending Home Sales MoM (10:00): 1.1% expected

 

Thursday (11/30)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Personal Income (8:30): 0.3% expected

Personal Spending (8:30): 0.2% expected

PCE Core MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

PCE Core YoY (8:30): 1.4% expected

Chicago Purchasing Manager (9:45): 62.0 expected

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

 

Friday (12/1)

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (9:45)

ISM Manufacturing (10:00): 58.3 expected

ISM Prices Paid (10:00): 67.5 expected

Construction Spending MoM (10:00): 0.5% expected 

Finally, on the ER front, we have the following companies scheduled to report which includes:

Earnings

?         Mon 11/27

?         Open: Tuniu (TOUR)

?         Close: MTS Systems (MTSC), Tech Data (TECD)

?         Tues 11/28

?         Open: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Nomad Foods (NOMD), Momo (MOMO)

?         Close: China Lodging (HTHT), Marvell (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK)

?         Wed 11/29

?         Open: Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Tiffany & Co (TIF), Atkore International (ATKR), Photronics (PLAB)

?         Close: PVH (PVH), Synopsys (SNPS), Workday (WDAY), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Jack in the Box (JACK), Box (BOX)

?         Thurs 11/30

?         Open: Kroger (KR), Toronto- Dominion Bank (TD), Michaels Stores (MIK), Barnes & Noble (BKS), Express (EXPR), Perry Ellis (PERY)

?         Close: VMware (VMW), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Nutanix (NTNX), Five Below (FIVE), Zumiez (ZUMZ), Ambarella (AMBA), Yext (YEXT)

?         Fri 12/01

?         Open: Genesco (GCO), American Woodmark (AMWD), Oaktree Strategic Income (OCSI)

?         Close:

 

Until next week's update, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments, and coin tosses.


Stay safe, 


jay

Weekly Update Ended Dec 1, 2017

Hard to believe but we are 26 days and hours away from 2018. This year has flown by faster than any year before and we are now into the final push for 2017. Fake news stories are all over the place and none more so than those in the financial media space. Given the facts that markets are at all-time highs the world over, even a hint of anything negative has investors scurrying for cover. 

Has anyone noticed the fact that the scurrying is mostly done by investors that trade on our exchanges and then maybe, the effect is felt in other markets? So, what does that mean?  Two things, either we have the world's most naive and gullible investors who fall for every shite story the fake news artists put out more than likely in cahoots of the darkside which by now is more than likely besides itself with frustration. The other is the fact that our markets are led around and at the mercy of the algos which see the negative headlines and then just react. There is no rational thought process, just the focus on the negative event/headline/story.

Call me a conspiracy theorist if you will but I am increasingly convinced that most of the fake news artists/journalists/websites have hidden agendas and/or have been paid off by the darksiders to get the markets lower. Unfortunately for investors (LT or ST or any other kind in between), the beatdowns are so fierce albeit senseless, the damage done in one negative session can take several weeks to recover from. However, that is the playing field we have earmarked for ourselves to making a living in, so its part and parcel of what we do every single day. 

One has two choices, maintain rolling weekly hedges and hope for a payoff when the fake news artists float a whopper out there or maintain high levels of cash. None are optimal strategies given the fact that using the former likely means 90% of the time those hedges will expire worthless (assuming puts) and maintaining high levels of cash has an opportunity cost (cash sitting idle) that has to be overcome. Almost like being asked to pick one's poison.

Cest la vie, mes amis.

Last week, the indices finished at yet another all-time high and so did our main account while the mini-account is also up nicely in the two months or so since I funded it.

For the week, the FAANG names took a beatdown and the indices closed at ATHs except for the Nazz which was down a bit:

NASDAQ down 0.6%. 

DOW up 2.9% (fins rallied like scalded apes last week)

S&P up 1.5%

Zuck down 4%

AAPL down 2%

Bezos down 2%

NFLX down 5%

GOOGL down 3%

Among the BATS names:

Baidu was up 6%

Jack was down 8%

TCEHY gave back 9%

and SINA was hammered down by 12%

As one can imagine, the jaysomaney.com (main) account was hit hard given the double whammy of being an all-options trading vehicle and then tech-only and is now up "just" 209% year-to-date versus 261% from a week ago and 244% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $815,240 (plus the $4,662 in the mini-account) which gives us $819,902 in net liquidation with $639,705 of that in cash (includes cash in the mini-account), down from the prior week as I took advantage of the fake news specials.

The mini account is once again down 7% in the two months or so since I funded it with an initial starting amount of $5,000 (taken from the main account) and of the $4,662 in liquidation value in that account, $4,040 of that is in cash. Plenty of cash in both accounts to end the year with a bang provided the markets trade on fundamentals and not on fake news. Unfortunately, Chuckles has been staggering like a drunken sailor on the fake news which is now an almost daily phenomenon and on days when the fake news specialists/artists are taking a breather, Chuckles seems to barely make any upwards progress.

This next part is getting repetitive, I know, but it helps answer those email queries which is why I leave it in.

Cash in the accounts is admittedly high and I am still looking for optimal deployment of that cash. Given the fact that not only are our indices at all-time highs but so are global indices at all-time highs, a bit of caution might not be a bad thing at all. However, having said that, there are still a few stocks that are still cheap despite their absolute performance. 

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go, as always, with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).

Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)

Buy QQQ Puts

Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer

Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

Thankfully on the Fed head front, we don't have any confirmed speeches but I am sure the various heads will find a way to make headlines even when not required.

Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (12/4)

Factory Orders (10:00): -0.4% expected

Durable Goods Orders (10:00)

Durables Ex Transportation (10:00)

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (10:00)

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (10:00)

 

Tuesday (12/5)

Trade Balance (8:30) -$45.4b expected

Markit US Services PMI (9:45): 55.3 expected

Markit US Composite PMI (9:45)

ISM Non-Manf. Composite (10:00):59.0 expected

 

Wednesday (12/6)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

ADP Employment Change (8:15): 190k expected

 

Thursday (12/7)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

 

Friday (12/8)

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30): 210k expected

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (8:30): 15k expected

Unemployment Rate (8:30): 4.1% expected

Wholesale Inventories MoM (10:00)

U. of Mich. Sentiment (10:00): 98.7 expected

 

International

Monday (12/4)

UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (4:30)

Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Services (19:30)

Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (19:30)

China Caixin China PMI Composite (20:45)

China Caixin China PMI Services (20:45)

 

Tuesday (12/5)

Germany Markit Germany Services PMI (3:55)

Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (3:55)

Eurozone Agg Markit Eurozone Services PMI (4:00)

Eurozone Agg Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (4:00)

UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (4:30)

UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (4:30)

Eurozone Agg GDP SA QoQ (5:00)

Eurozone Agg GDP SA YoY (5:00)

 

Wednesday (12/6)

Germany Factory Orders MoM (2:00)

Germany Factory Orders WDA YoY (2:00)

 

Thursday (12/7)

Germany Industrial Production SA MoM (2:00)

Germany Industrial Production WDA YoY (2:00)

UK Halifax House Prices MoM (3:30)

UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year (3:30)

Japan GDP SA QoQ (18:50)

Japan GDP Annualized SA QoQ (18:50)

Japan GDP Deflator YoY (18:50)

 

Friday (12/8)

UK Industrial Production MoM (4:30)

UK Industrial Production YoY (4:30)

UK Manufacturing Production MoM (4:30)

UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn (4:30)

UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn (4:30)

UK Trade Balance (4:30)

China CPI YoY (20:30): 1.8% expected

China PPI YoY (20:30): 5.8% expected


Earnings season is almost over but we still have a few interesting techland names reporting this week.


Earnings

?         Mon 12/4

?         Open: GW Pharma (GWPH)

?         Close: Ascena Retail Group (ASNA), Coupa Software (COUP)

?         Tues 12/5

?         Open: Bank of Montreal (BMO), AutoZone (AZO), Toll Brothers (TOL), HD Supply Holdings (HDS), Lands End (LE), J. Jill (Jill)

?         Close: Restoration Hardware (RH), Dave & Busters (PLAY), Oxford Industries (OXM), Veeva Systems (VEEV)

?         Wed 12/6

?         Open: American Eagle (AEO), Brown-Forman (BF), Fred;s (FRED), H & R Block (HRB)

?         Close: Broadcom (AVGO), Grief (GEF), Keysight (KEYS), lululemon athletica (LULU)

?         Thurs 12/7

?         Open: Dollar General (DG), JinkoSolar Holding (JKS) Ciena (CIEN) GMS (GMS)

?         Close: United Natural Foods (UNFI), Science Applications (SAIC), Cooper (COO), Finisar (FNSR), American Outdoor Brands (AOBC), Cloudera (CLDR)

?         Fri 12/8

?         Open:

?         Close:

 

COUP, VEEV, AVGO, JKS, CIEN, CLDR


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice rolls.


Stay safe

jay

Weekly Update Ended Dec 16, 2017

Less than 2 weeks and we all will be ushering in yet another year. 2018 is rushing at us at breakneck speed. 

I am sorry about missing the update last week but the year-end push has me tied up in so many different directions, I am finding very little time to get to everything in time. No excuses, it is what it is. 

Our markets and global markets continue to make all-time highs and correctly so. Don't get taken in by the shite the always-short-never-wrong-and never-any-losses gang and the waiting-for- correction-forever crowd gives you that the highs are a result of easy money by central banks globally. The real reason is that for the first time in almost 2 decades global economies are doing well and doing well together. That is the reason the markets are making highs. Not saying that the past easy money policies by central banks have not helped but that is a secondary reason. Some will say that it's because of the easy money policy of central banks that have led to the economic good times globally. So be it. Isn't that exactly what central banks are supposed to do in the first place? 

There has been no slowdown in fake news stories by the financial media (press and bubblevision) and don't expect to see any either. In fact, it will more than likely get more rabid and even more fake and dishonest going forward. Par for the course and part of the battlefield. And, yes it's a battlefield out there no matter how easy it might seem on the rare occasion. 

Last week, the indices finished at yet another all-time highs, however, our main account was flat week-on-week thanks to continued tech apathy/hatred while the mini-account is also down a bit in the two months or so since I funded it.

For the week, indices closed at ATHs:

NASDAQ up 2.2%

DOW up 2.1% 

S&P up 1.6%

The jaysomaney.com (main) account was down a bit on the week hit hard given the double whammy of being an all-options trading vehicle and then tech-only and is now up 200% year-to-date versus 209% from a week ago and 261% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $815,240 (plus the $4,662 in the mini-account) which gives us $790,818 in net liquidation with $626,870 of that in cash (includes cash in the mini-account), down from the prior week as I took slight advantage of the fake news specials.

The mini account is now down 9% in the two months or so since I funded it with an initial starting amount of $5,000 (taken from the main account) and of the $4,555 in liquidation value in that account, $4,040 of that is in cash. Plenty of cash in both accounts to end the year with a bang provided the markets trade on fundamentals and not on fake news. Unfortunately, Chuckles has been staggering like a drunken sailor on the fake news which is now an almost daily phenomenon and on days when the fake news specialists/artists are taking a breather, Chuckles seems to barely make any upwards progress.

This next part is getting repetitive, I know, but it helps answer those email queries which is why I leave it in.

Cash in the accounts is admittedly high and I am still looking for optimal deployment of that cash. Given the fact that not only are our indices at all-time highs but so are global indices at all-time highs, a bit of caution might not be a bad thing at all. However, having said that, there are still a few stocks that are still cheap despite their absolute performance. 

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go, as always, with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).

Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)

Buy QQQ Puts

Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer

Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

I am going to shorten this week's update in the interest of timeliness and zap it off to you all right now.

Until the next time, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades/investments and coin tosses. 

Be safe, 

Jay

Weekly Update Ended Dec 23, 2017

There we have it. One final week left before we say goodbye to 2017 and usher in 2018. 

Last week, the indices finished higher by a smidge as the fabled Santa Rally turned out to be the usual load of shite fed to investors by Wall Street. 

Let's see what the final week brings us.

The jaysomaney.com account was up for the week despite the indices flatlining as a few names in our China basket had a good week. VIPS received a big endorsement from JD and Tencent in the form of an equity stake at a price north of $13/share. 

Here's how our indices, FAANG and BATS performed for the week:

NASDAQ was up a teeny bit- ) up 0.04%. 

DOW up 0.04%

S&P up 0.03%

Zuck down 1.7%

AAPL up 0.05%

Bezos down 1%

NFLX pancaked

GOOGL down 0.03%

Among the BATS names:

Baidu was up 2.4%

Jack was up 1.4%

TCEHY added 3.8%

and SINA tacked on 4%

So, what does this last week have in store for us? This is not only the last week of the last month of the year but it is also the end of the quarter and the year. I think this week will be absolutely horrifyingly full of fake news that could scare the pants of Ma and Pa and the rest of the hot money flowing in and out of stocks and the ETFs/markets. On the flip side, fake news on the rare occasion works to the upside as well however I, for one, am not holding my breath in that regard. 

Just for example, Barrons had a favorable write up on tech bargains for 2018 which included Apple and Micron. Both are trading at absolute dirt cheap multiples and throwaway prices. In addition, the publication stated that fruit could beat the other mega-caps and hit the $1 trillion mark in 2018. However, on the flip side, we have Bloomy already slamming Apple in an article over the weekend with negative quotes from "vaunted and world-renown" firms like Sinolink Securities and JL Warren Capital. The usual shite about how the weak the March quarter will be and how this supplier has stopped hiring workers and that manufacturer has slashed production. Where they find shite-filled firms like that is beyond me but it is what it is. Till the false/fake news stops working, expect the lying, obfuscation, and drivel to continue unabated. 

The jaysomaney.com (main) account finished the week in the black and is now up 220%year-to-date versus 200% from a week ago and 209% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $842,150 (plus the $7,447 in the mini-account) which gives us $849,597 in net liquidation with $554,326 of that in cash (includes cash in the mini-account), down from the prior week as I took advantage of the fake news specials and converted our entire position in VIPS from options into equity via an early exercise.

The mini account is now up an even 50% in the two and 3/4 months or so since I funded it with an initial starting amount of $5,000 (taken from the main account) and of the $7,477 in liquidation value in that account, $7,140 of that is in cash. Plenty of cash in both accounts to end the year with a bang OR to start the new year off on a strong note provided the markets trade on fundamentals and not on fake news. Unfortunately, Chuckles has been staggering like a drunken sailor on the fake news which is now an almost daily phenomenon and on days when the fake news specialists/artists are taking a breather, Chuckles seems to barely make any upwards progress.

This next part is getting repetitive, I know, but it helps answer the constant email queries which is why I leave it in.

Cash in the accounts is admittedly high and I am always looking for optimal deployment of that cash. Just like I did with the VIPS options exercise. Given the fact that not only are our indices at all-time highs but so are global indices at all-time highs, a bit of caution might not be a bad thing at all. However, having said that, there are still a few stocks that are still cheap despite their absolute performance. 

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

For those of you that would prefer to maintain hedges at all time on your portfolios, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go, as always, with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).

Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)

Buy QQQ Puts

Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer

Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice rolls.

Stay safe

jay