Weekly Update Ended Sep 2, 2017
Hard to believe but we are already in the last trimester of the year. Time truly flies whether one is having fun OR not. LOL. August has come and gone and the indices eked out a tiny gain despite all the shouting from the roof tops by the pundits and gurus.
This weekend NK dropped another bomb, this time reportedly of the hydrogen kind. Global markets mostly took it in stride which is incredible as far as I am concerned. Japan and South Korean indices lost about 1% each in the past two days which is totally understandable given that they are directly in the line of fire, to use an unfortunate metaphor. The hits just keep coming with the devasting loss of life and property thanks to Harvey the weekend before and this weekend NK yet again.Markets have remained teflon all through despite the noisy shouting and the continued mess in Washington as well.
Let's see what September brings us.
Our futures are indicating a weak open this morning.
The jaysomaney.com account ended up on the week and is now up 201% year-to-date versus 167% from a week ago and also167% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past is now at $809,074 with $475,859 of that in cash, down slightly from the prior week as I initiated a new position and made an add in another. In the prior week ago period, we were up 167% YTD, and liquidation value from the closing levels a week ago was at $716,630 just as a point of easy reference for all of you.
The markets were slightly higher (by a hair) last week and have been pretty much moribund for the last few weeks now. So, nothing much happened last week except for a lot more noise on the usual fronts-Washington and North Korea. Most of last week was all about Harvey and its aftermath in South Texas and the continued noise from our politicians.
The following is a repeat for emphasis.
I am not a big believer in the seasonality theory because that is just more Wall Street nonsense to get folks to churn their accounts. Think about that, if all of us sell every May and then buy back in mid to late fall..that's a massive windfall for WS without even having to do any work. It's nonsense put together and parroted by the swamis, pundits, gurus and bobble heads on TV. Simple as that.
On the flip side, there are not many catalysts for the next several weeks, so there is no hurry until I see an opportunity. Opportunity does not wait on seasons by the way.
If we were to find a catalyst (maybe some additional clarity on the tax situation being talked about in Washington or NK calming down, we could see a nice rally over the next few weeks or more.
Please check your inboxes for a list of trades made last week.
Here we go with the usual part of the update:
Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing.
Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time.
There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short. Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".
Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.
Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside.
Confirmed Fed Speeches:
- Tuesday 9/05
- Lael Brainard ()
- Neel Kashkari ()
- Robert Kaplan ()
- Loretta Meester ()
- William Dudley ()
- Raphael Bostic ()
- Esther George ()
- Patrick Harker (