Weekly Update Ended March 16, 2018
We are off to a rough start to the week and that is not a surprise given the massive noise we have had to deal with the last week and change. Take a look at the following:
Last Tuesday, the POTUS puts out an Executive order barring Broadcom from taking over Qualcomm. (Not a market-friendly event)
Also on Tuesday, the French finance minister Bruno Le Maire said member states should form a united response and could even retaliate alongside nations from outside Europe on the Trump steel tariffs.
Last Wednesday Rex Tillerson was fired by our President. Another one bites the dust!
brought us news that Larry Kudlow was set to replace Gary Cohn (also fired)-a positive based on the fact that Larry is a bigly proponent of free markets although how that will tie in with Trump's protectionist agenda to appease his blue-collar voters, is beyond me. However, here is what the President had to say on that, "We don't agree on everything, but in this case, I think that's good. I want to have different opinions. We agree on most. He now has come around to believing in tariffs as a negotiating point."
So, we shall see how long this new honeymoon lasts, no?
, the US accused the Russian government of a campaign of cyber attacks stretching back at least two years that targeted critical infrastructure, including energy, nuclear, water, and commercial facilities. The Trump administration also hit targeted Russians with sanctions for alleged election meddling, prompting a swift threat of retaliation from Moscow, which said a response was being prepared ahead of presidential elections (Putin won handily).
Most importantly, we also have the FOMC looming large this week with the noise reaching crescendo levels about a hawkish Fed that will hike rates a zillion times between now and the end of time. LOL.
The action thus far (3/19/18 at 11:15 est) is decidedly negative and that may not be a bad thing given that it will yet again flush the weak hands out. I am hoping for a LOD close this afternoon as it will set a cautionary tone into the FOMC event afternoon. We shall see.
Moving on to your favorite section (I hope):
As of March 17, 2018, the jaysomaney.com options account is up $464,839 or 177% compared to up 166% the week before and the options account has a net liquidation value of $735,228 compared to $706,630 the prior week with current cash of $587,203.
As of March 17th, 2018, the jaysomaney.com equity account is flat and the account has a net liquidation of $500,000, all of it in cash.
As of March 17th, 2018, the jaysomaney.com mini account is up $3,266 or 45% and the account has a net liquidation value of $10,586 with $8,182 in cash (flat with the prior week).
The combined liquidation value of the three jaysomaney.com accounts as of March 10, 2018, currently stands at $1,245,874 up 61.19% overall for 2018.
$1,095,385 is the net cash position of all three accounts combined.
Our cash position is up around $140k from a week ago.
The S&P was lower by 1.2%
The Nazz was down 1.0%.
The Dow declined by 1.5%.
FB was down 0.08% (7-week loss of 3.3%)
AAPL was lower by 1.1% (7-week gain of 4.3%)
Bezos (AMZN) was down 0.5% (7-week gain of 12.0%)
Flixsta (NFLX) got hit for 4.0% (7-week gain of 15.7%)
GOOGL was down 2.3% (7-week loss of 3.8%)
BIDU was higher by 0.04% (7-week gain of 2.6%)
BABA up 5.1% (7-week loss of 3.2%)
TCEHY higher by 1.9% (7-week loss of 2.4%)
SINA was down 4.2% (7-week loss of 3.2%).
Not a bad week for the jaysomaney.com options account, in comparison, with cash levels now almost 95%. Hmmmm!!
Notable ERs this week include Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) on March 19; FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and Lennar (NYSE:LEN) on March 20; General Mills (NYSE:GIS), PVH (NYSE:PVH), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) and JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) on March 21; Nike (NYSE:NKE) [with a potentially compelling conference call], Micron (NASDAQ:MU), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI) and Accenture (NYSE:ACN) on ; Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL) on .
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is due to testify on trade and tariffs before the House Ways and Means Committee on .
In the FAANG group, FB and GOOGL continue to severely underperform while the others are plodding along. BATS names are all down from the January highs with the except of BIDU which is sporting a gain.
Of course, after the drubbing (thus far) today, the returns will be drastically lower. However, the week is just getting started, so there is time to finish the week on a better not depending on what comes out of the FOMC meeting of "wise" men and women.
My motto has always been, "Never trust the Fed." Let's see if it holds true this week as well.
Today is all about the Fed, the trade, and tariff shouting, EU coming after our tech firms, the turnover in the Big House (the White one-lol) and the "end of the world" issue at Facebook.
As of this writing, the Dow is down 327, the Nazz is lower by 162 and the S&P os off 41 points.
Stay calm, this too shall pass as it always does.
The usual part follows:
THERE IS NO BETTER HEDGE THAN CASH.
THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I HAD STOPPED INCLUDING THIS SECTION HOWEVER BASED ON WHAT I HAVE READ AND HEARD FROM MY INVESTORS/SUBSCRIBERS/IMAs, I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN GOING FORWARD.
Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x
Use VIX and VIX related ETF/ETNs (extremely risky as we all saw last week)
PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.
Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all.
Also, I am bringing back the following section as well after what we all went through in all of February as a reminder:
Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing.
Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time.
There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short. Please avoid those sort of "investments"
As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".
Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.
Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside.
Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice rolls.