Weekly Update Ended Nov 18, 2017

Last week was another week where the indices were basically flat to slightly higher on continued fallout from the mess in Washington. The Nasdaq finished higher on the week thanks to that spectacular rally this past Thursday but the Dow and S&P were lower on the week. 

For the week among the FAANG names:

Apple finished lower by $4 and change;

Bezos was up $4 and change;

Googly was down about $10

Zuck was higher by a few dimes

Flixsta was up a buckeroo.

However as all of you know a flat week plays havoc in options-land and so it was gratifying to see that our portfolio hung in there, thanks to gains in the smaller Chinese companies. I am thrilled that our mini-account is now up 30% in two months and while the absolute dollars is not much to write home about, its the returns all of us should be focused on. To be up 30% in a month and a half is not easy. Take a look at the performance of 95% of the mutual funds out there.

Moving on to the China basket:

Within the BATS quartet:

Baidu was up a couple of bucks on the week;

Jack (BABA) was down a buck and small change,

Tencent (TCEHY) added about $2.50/share

and SINA was higher by half a buck or so.

With ER season now mostly behind us wth the exception of a couple of names in our China basket, the focus will now turn to Holiday sales and of course the political mess in Washington and across the pond with Brexit and German political issues.

Our futures are indicating a lower open, as usual, with e-mins down 2.25 and Nazz futures off by 2.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 244% year-to-date versus 243% from a week ago and 234% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $905,246 (plus the $6,483 in the min-account) which gives us $911,729 in net liquidation with $671,915 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up quite a bit from the prior week.

Cash in the account is admittedly high and I am still looking for optimal deployment of that cash. Given the fact that not only are our indices at all-time highs but so are global indices at all-time highs, a bit of caution might not be a bad thing at all. However, having said that, there are still a few stocks that are still cheap despite their absolute performance. 

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).

Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)

Buy QQQ Puts

Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer

Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

We are light on the economic data front this week as well on the ER front too and thankfully we have zero scheduled Fed speeches this week.

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (11/20)

Leading Index (10:00): 0.6% expected

 

Tuesday (11/21)

Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (8:30)

Existing Home Sales (10:00): 5.41m expected

 

Wednesday (11/22)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Durable Goods Orders (8:30): 0.3% expected

Durables Ex Transportation (8:30): 0.4% expected

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (8:30): 0.3% expected

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

U. of Mich. Sentiment (10:00): 98.0 expected

 

Thursday (11/23)

Markets Closed for Thanksgiving

 

Friday (11/24)

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (9:45)

Markit US Services PMI (9:45)

Markit US Composite PMI (9:45)


Earnings

  • Mon 11/20
    • Open: Bitauto Holdings (BITA) Already declared and in our lttle chat room
    • Close: Vipshop (VIPS), ZTO Express (ZTO), Agilent (A), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Intuit (INTU), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
  • Tues 11/21
    • Open: Lowes (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Jacobs (JEC), Analog Devices (ADI), Burlington Stores (BURL), Dycom (DY), DSW (DSW), Daktronics (DAKT)
    • Close: HP (HPQ), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Salesforce (CRM), GameStop (GME), Baozun (BZUN), Guess? (GES)
  • Wed 11/22
    • Open: Deere (DE)
    • Close:
  • Thurs 11/23
    • Open:
    • Close:
  •  Fri 11/24
    • Open:
    • Close:

Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our tradesm investments and dice throws.

Stay safe

Jay

Weekly Update Ended November 11, 2017

Last week was a flat to slightly lower week in techland as most of the mega-caps are done with their Q3:17 earnings and investors are allowing for a bit of digestion and contemplation before deciding on the path ahead. 

That's not to say that last week did not have its shares of wins and losses. Roku and our very own Nvidia were the big winners in techland after both blew past earnings estimates while SWKS would have to be classified as the dud last week among many others in techland.

POTUS's trip to the East is over with and he comes back to the quagmire that is DC where tax reform posturing is in full swing between the House and the Senate and Dems and Reps. Heaven help us all.

Our futures are indicating another lower open (3rd day in a row) as Wall Street continues to milk the tax reform situation as much as it can and for as long as it can. 

JD has reported numbers a bit ago and a nice beat on the bottom and in-line on the top-line. Shares indicated higher by a couple of bucks.

The doltish management team at Qualcomm is getting ready to reject Broadcom's takeover offer which was exactly what I expected given the ineptitude and self-serving nature of most corporate America management teams.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 243% year-to-date versus 234% from a week ago and 203% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $903,897 (plus the $4,066 in the min-account) which gives us $907,963 in net liquidation with $647,735 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up quite a bit from the prior week.

Cash in the account is admittedly high and I am looking for optimal deployment of that cash.

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

This week we return to a heavy Fedhead schedule with the following speakers scheduled:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Tuesday 11/14
    • Charles Evans (3:05 AM ET)
    • James Bullard (8:15 AM ET)
  • Wednesday 11/15
    • Chares Evans (3:00 AM ET)
  • Thursday 11/16
    • Lael Brainard
    • Loretta Mester (9:10 AM ET)
    • Robert Kaplan (1:10 PM ET)
  • Friday 11/17
    • Lael Brainard


On the economic data front, here's what's on tap for the week ahead:


Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (11/13)

Monthly Budget Statement (14:00): -$50.0b expected

 

Tuesday (11/14)

NFIB Small Business Optimism (6:00): 104.5 expected

PPI Final Demand MoM (8:30): 0.1% expected

PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

PPI Final Demand YoY (8:30)

PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (8:30)

PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY (8:30)

 

Wednesday (11/15)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

CPI MoM (8:30): 0.1% expected

CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

CPI YoY (8:30): 2.0% expected

Empire Manufacturing (8:30): 26.2 expected

Retail Sales Advance MoM (8:30): 0.1% expected

Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (8:30)

Total Net TIC Flows (16:00)

Net Long-term TIC Flows (16:00)

 

Thursday (11/16)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (8:30): 24.1 expected

Import Price Index MoM (8:30): 0.4% expected

Industrial Production MoM (9:15): 0.5% expected

Capacity Utilization (9:15): 76.3% expected

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

 

Friday (11/17)

Housing Starts (8:30): 1183k expected

Building Permits (8:30): 1242k expected

 

Earnings for the week include (but not limited to):


Earnings

  • Mon 11/13
    • Open: JD.com (JD), Tyson Foods (TSN), Aecom Tech (ACM)
    • Close: PQ Group (PQG), WideOpenWest (WOW), MTS Systems (MTSC), Netshoes (NETS)
  • Tues 11/14
    • Open: TJX (TJX), Home Depot (HD), ARAMARK Holdings (ARMK), Advance Auto (AAP), Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS), Cheniere Energy (LNG)
    • Close: Beazer Homes (BZH), YY (YY), Esco Tech (ESE)
  • Wed 11/15
    • Open: Target (TGT), Sally Beauty (SBH), Meritor (MTOR), JA Solar (JASO)
    • Close: Cisco Systems (CSCO), L Brands (LB), Netease (NTES), Smart & Final Stores (SFS)
  • Thurs 11/16
    • Open: Wal-Mart (WMY), Best Buy (BBY), BEST inc. (BSTI), Viacom (VIAB), JM Smucker (SJM), Manchester United (MANU) 
    • Close: Applied Materials (AMAT), Gap (GPS), Ross Stores (ROST), Post (POST), Splunk (SPLK)
  • Fri 11/17
    • Open: Foot Locker (FL), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Buckle (BKE), Hibbet Sporting (HIBB), Destination XL Group (DXLG)
    • Close:


We have just had numbers from JD (see the chatroom) and have YY tomorrow and NTES the day after that.


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice throws.

Be safe, 
jay

Weekly Update Ended Nov 4, 2017

Last week was a good week in techland as the continued sudden tech love continued from the prior week as great numbers from the likes of Amazon, Google, et al in the prior week were followed by equally great numbers from the likes of Apple and Alibaba, etc.

I got a few emails from our chat-room mates asking why AAPL was not up more. My take is that Apple rallied about $10 per share prior to the number and about $5 post, which is a $75 billion increase in cap in a matter of a week.  Not shabby by any means at all. 

Alibaba, on the other hand declined by a few points post its own ER and that was probably due to what the POTUS will do when he is in China this week and of course a sell-the-news reaction as well there. Singles day is on Saturday, so let's see how the stock reacts leading up to the weekend.

Our futures are flattish with the e-mins down half a point while the Nazz futures are up 3.50.

The YUGE news this am is the hostile bid by Broadcom to take over Qualcomm for $130B including debt. AVGO will pay $70 per share for QCOM and the bid is good even if QCOM does not complete its own NXPI takeover. Shares of AVGO are up $4/share, NXPI is down slightly while QCOM is up a couple of dollars in early PM activity.

For once the chatter ahead of the weekend turned out to be true. 

Seems like a win-win all around. 

Let's see how the doltish management team at QCOM responds to the hostile offer.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 234% year-to-date versus 203% from a week ago and 188% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $880,647 (plus the $4,547 in the min-account) which gives us $8885,194 in net liquidation with $630,125 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up quite a bit from the prior week.

Cash in the account is admittedly high and I am looking for optimal deployment of that cash.

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets have made all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher as well. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS NEW FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 


This week on the Fed-head front we have the following confirmed speeches scheduled;

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 11/06
    • William Dudley (12:10 PM ET)

On the economic data front, here is what's on tap this week:


Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (11/6)

 

Tuesday (11/7)

 

Wednesday (11/8)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

 

Thursday (11/9)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

Wholesale Inventories MoM (10:00)

 

Friday (11/10)

U. of Michigan Sentiment (10:00): 100.4 expected

Monthly Budget Statement (14:00)


On the ER front, we have the following:


Earnings

  • Mon 11/6
    • Open: CVS Health (CVS), Cardinal Health (CAH), Sysco (SYY), Mylan (MYL), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Michael Kors (KORS) 
    • Close: Plains All American (PAA), Plains GP (PAGP), Tenet Healthcare (THC), Priceline (PCLN), Avis Budget (CAR), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Skyworks (SWKS), Intl Flavors (IFF)
  • Tues 11/7
    • Open: US Foods (USFD), Emerson (EMR), Coca-Cola European Partners (CCE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Valeant Pharma (VRX), Dean Foods (DF),
    • Close: DXC Technology (DXC), Cimarex (XEC), Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), Marriott (MAR), Take-Two (TTWO), Fossil (FOSL)Snap (SNAP), Zillow (Z), Blue Buffalo (BUFF)
  • Wed 11/8
    • Open: Humana (HUM), Performance Food Group (PFGC), MGM Resorts (MGM), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Wolverine (WWW)
    • Close: Manulife Financial (MFC), 21st Century Fox (FOXA), CenturyLink (CTL), ROKU (ROKU), Hologic (HOLX), 
  • Thurs 11/9
    • Open: Magna (MGA), Johnson Controls (JCI), AstraZeneca (AZN), Macys (M), Kohls (KSS), Office Depot (ODP), Coty (COT), Time (TIME), Party City (PRTY)
    • Close: NVIDIA (NVDA), Walt Disney (DIS), Nordstrom (JWN), Hertz (HTZ), Lions Gate (LGF)
  • Fri 11/10
    • Open: ArcelorMittal (MT), JC Penney (JCP), CAE (CAE)
    • Close:

In techland, the biggie for us is NVDA on Thursday post the closing bell, and SWKS after the close tonight.


As always, the above list is not exhaustive and as we move through our work week, I will try and provide a daily list.


Until next week, may the trading GOddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice rolls.


Be safe

Jay

Weekly Update Ended Oct 28, 2017

We started last week with continued tech/Chinese investments apathy/hatred but thanks to results from the likes of Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and even Intel, we ended the week with those same investors who have been heading for the hills, using tech and Chinese ADS/ADRs as ATMs come rushing back in.  

Just over the weekend, I have read so many stories talking positively about Apple (reporting on Thursday) which is a complete flip from last week and for months prior where everything that came out was totally negative. 

It was a matter of time as far as I was concerned however it does pose a dilemma for me given the fact that I have not built up to a full position as yet in the account I had set up for the site back in Feb 2016.  We will see how things shape up.

Our futures are indicating a lower open which is understandable given the rally we went through this past Friday although Apple is indicated higher.

We have another busy week in techland but no Super Thursday (ERs from AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, INTC, BIDU) like last week but close enough with both BABA and AAPL on Thursday, the former before the bell and the latter after.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 203% year-to-date versus 188% from a week ago and 200% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $798,189 (plus the $4,230 in the min-account) which gives us $802,419 in net liquidation with $637,007 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up quite a bit from the prior week.

Cash in the account has never been higher and I keep getting emails from a lot of you about putting it to use. The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets have made all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher as well. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS NEW FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

We have two very big events this week on the econ data front as well which are the FOMC decision at 2 pm on Wednesday afternoon and the NFP data on Friday morning.

Here we go with the economic data calendar for this week:

Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (10/30)

Personal Income (8:30): 0.4% expected

Personal Spending (8:30): 0.8% expected

PCE Core MoM (8:30): 0.1% expected

Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (10:30): 21 expected

 

Tuesday (10/31)

Employment Cost Index (8:30): 0.7% expected

Chicago Purchasing Manager (9:45): 60.0 expected

Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10:00): 121.0 expected

 

Wednesday (11/1)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

ADP Employment Change (8:15): 188k expected

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (9:45)

ISM Manufacturing (10:00): 59.0 expected

ISM Prices Paid (10:00): 67.5 expected

Construction Spending MoM (10:00): -0.4% expected

FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (14:00): 1.25% expected

 

Thursday (11/2)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

 

Friday (11/3)

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30): 310k expected

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (8:30): 18k expected

Unemployment Rate (8:30): 4.2% expected

Trade Balance (8:30): -43.5b expected

ISM Non-Manf. Composite (10:00): 58.0 expected

Factory Orders (10:00): 1.0% expected

Durable Goods Orders (10:00)

Durables Ex Transportation (10:00)

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (10:00)

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (10:00)

Markit US Services PMI (10:45)

Markit US Composite PMI (10:45)


On the ER front:

Earnings

  • Mon 10/30
    • Open: First Data (FDC), Dominion Energy (D), Sempra Energy (SRE), Roper (ROP), Mercury General (MCY), Loews Corp (L)
    • Close: Mondelez (MDLZ), Edison (EIX), CB&I (CBI), Sanmina (SANM), Everest Re (RE), Olin (OLN)
  • Tues 10/31
    • Open: Sony (SNE), BP (BP), Archer-Daniels (ADM), Pfizer (PFE), HCA (HCA), Eaton (ETN), Mastercard (MA), Kellogg (K), AK Steel (AKS), Under Armour (UAA), Harris (HRS)
    • Close: CH Robinson (CHRW), Devon Energy (DVN), US Steel (X), Anadarko Petroleum (APC)
  • Wed 11/1
    • Open: Allergan (AGN), Honda Motor (HMC), Bunge (BG), Southern (SO), CDW (CDW), Cognizant (CTSH), Spirit Aerosystems (SPR), Clorox (CLX), Groupon (GRPN)
    • Close: Facebook (FB), Metlife (MET), Prudential (PRU), Allstate (ALL), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Qualcomm (QCOM)
  • Thurs 11/2
    • Open: Apache Corp (APA), Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP), DowDuPont (DWDP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS), AmerisourceBergen (ABC), Enbridge (ENB), CIGNA (CI), Sanofi (SNY), Alibaba (BABA), Yum! Brands (YUM), Zoetis (ZTS)
    • Close: Apple (AAPL), Starbucks (SBUX), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), American Intl (AIG), Moline Healthcare (MOH), Flour (FLR), Con Edison (ED), Live Nation (LYV), CBS (CBS)
  • Fri 11/3
    • Open: Duke Energy (DUK), CB Richard Ellis (CBG), Fortis (FTS), CenterPoint (CNP)
    • Close:


Techland ERs of importance to us:

Monday, PM: SANM

Tuesday: nm

Wednesday AM--GRPN, CTSH,

Wednesday PM-FB, QCOM

Thursday AM-BABA

Thursday PM-AAPL, ATVI


I am sure there are many others in techland that are not on the list but these are the biggies, I will try and add the rest as we move through the week and a day in advance.


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice rolls.


Be safe

jay

Weekly Update Ended Oct 21, 2017

The same old story continues where the indices keep making all-time highs week in and week out however the action within the indices paints a different picture, especially in techland. Techland stocks continue to be the ATMs of choice, like they have been for years, being the first to get sold off heavily on the mildest of declines overall. That is something I have to deal with going forward almost every second of the day. 

Geopolitical issues continue to loom large with the major issue that we investors have to constantly deal with being the mess in DC. Global markets continue to make all-time highs as well although in the East things are far more stable politically than in the West. That's not to forget the ever-present threats back and forth between Trump and NK. 

Our futures are indicating a slightly higher open while I write this email out.

This week is an exceedingly busy week in techland with earnings from the likes of AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, BIDU amongst many others in the sector. The list follows below.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly lower on the week and is now up 188% year-to-date versus 200% from a week ago and 191% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $759,566 (plus the $4,915 in the min-account) with $574,151 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up slightly from the prior week. The markets have made all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher as well. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

I remain very high in cash as I have been all year long, however, such high cash levels is the best hedge that one can have as well and prevents panic-induced sell moves when the market seems like the end of the world is imminent.

As is the norm, I received a few emails this past week and over the weekend, wondering when I would use my cash and again, I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS NEW FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

 The Fed gives us a break this week with only Neel Kashari scheduled to speak on Thursday at 10.30 am EST.

We are heavy on the economic data front with the big one being GDP data on Friday morning.

Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (10/23)

Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (830): -0.10 expected

 

Tuesday (10/24)

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (9:45): 53.3 expected

Markit US Services PMI (9:45): 55.0 expected

Markit US Composite PMI (9:45)

Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (10:0016 expected

 

Wednesday (10/25)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

Durable Goods Orders (8:30): 1.0% expected

Durables Ex Transportation (8:30): 0.3% expected

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (8:30): 0.1% expected

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (8:30)

FHFA House Price Index MoM (9:00): 0.4% expected

New Home Sales (10:00): 550k expected

 

Thursday (10/26)

Wholesale Inventories MoM (8:30)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

Pending Home Sales MoM (10:00): 0.3% expected

 

Friday (10/27)

GDP Annualized QoQ (8:30): 2.5% expected

Personal Consumption (8:30)

GDP Price Index (8:30): 1.8% expected

Core PCE QoQ (8:30)

U. of Mich. Sentiment (10:00): 101.0 expected


On the ER front we have the following companies reporting this week (not an exhaustive list)

Earnings


  • Mon 10/23
    • Open: Arconic (ARNC), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Halliburton (HAL), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Philips (PHG), V.F. Corp (VFC), Hasbro (HAS)
    • Close: Whirlpool (WHR), Owens-Illinois (OI), Crane (CR), Zions Bancorp (ZION), Logitech (LOGI)
  • Tues 10/24
    • Open: Eli Lilly (LLY), Infosys (INFY), Gerneal Motors (GM), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), United Tech (UTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Novartis (NVS), Caterpillar (CAT), 3M (MMM), McDonalds (MCD), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK). Biogen (BIIB), JetBlue (JBLU)
    • Close: AT&T (T), Express Scripts (ESRX), Capital One (COF), Texas Instruments (TXN), Advanced Micron (AMD), Chipotle (CMG), Edwards Lifesciences (EW)
  • Wed 10/25
    • Open: United Micro (UMC), Walgreens (WBA), Boeing (BA), Anthem (ANTM), Coca-Cola (KO), General Dynamics (GD), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Intl Paper (IP), Visa (V), Wyndham (WYN), Sirius (SIRI), Six Flags (SIX), Grub Hub (GRUB), Trivago (TRVG)
    • Close: NXP Semi (NXPI), Suncor Energy (SU), Amgen (AMGN), AFLAC (AFL), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), OReilly Auto (ORLY), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), Netgear (NTGR),
  • Thurs 10/26
    • Open: Waste Management (WM), Southwest (LUV), Comcast (CMCSA), Banco Santander Chile (BSAC), McKesson (MCK), Ford (F), Valero (VLO), Marathon Petro (MPC), UPS (UPS), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Charter (CHTR), ConocoPhillips (COP), Raytheon (RTN), Nokia (NOK), Bristol-Myers (BMY)
    • Close: Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Gilead (GILD), Flex (FLEX), Western Digital (WDC), Baidu (BIDU), Mattel (MAT)
  • Fri 10/27
    • Open: Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Phillips 66 (PSX), Merck (MRK), Abbvie (ABBV), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Rockwell Collins (COL)
    • Close:

Of importance to us in techland:

Monday pm-LOGI

Tuesday om-T, AMD, TXN

Wednesday am-TVGO, GRUB, SIRI

Wednesday pm-NXPI, NTGR

Thursday am-CMCSA, CHTR, NOK

Thursday pm-GOOGL, BIDU, AMZN, MSFT, INTC, FLEX, WDC

Friday-zippo


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all your trades, investments and dice rolls.

Be safe

Jay