Weekly Update Ended March 9, 2018
I hope you had a restful weekend with your loved ones, family, and friends.
ER season is pretty much in the books although there will be no rest for the weary/wicked, pick your poison.
I have been talking about two sectors in Yuge need of consolidation
Well, this morning we have the news that LITE is going to acquire OCLR for $9.99 per share. Both stocks should fly as LITE gets some top-notch technology from OCLR and OCLR gets an immediate pop. This should light a fire in the sector and get the ball rolliing for other M&A in the space, hopefully.
Last week was yet again a volatile one filled with noisy shouting, chest beating and wailing by the ASNAL crowd about how the trade and tariffs means the end of the world and how the jobs number (past Friday) would come in so hot, that the solar system would catch fire. Well, as these things usually turn out, neither happened.
The trade and tariff issue was rough for a while but not completely put to rest yet with POTUS and EC threatening each other with counters to the tariffs and Trump countering with counters to the EC counters. (Follow?)
ON the NFP data, wage inflation DECLINED. LOL. ASNAL and Wall Street rumor-mongerers (is this a word? just made it one. lol) quiet for the day and boasting about their long positions now. Not only does ASNAL never lose money on their short positions despite the markets more than tripling in the last10 years but they also come up with mysterious long positions when the markets are up. Magical positions, indeed.
Moving on to your favorite section (I hope):
As of March 10, 2018, the jaysomaney.com options account is up $441,004 or 166% compared to up 132% the week before and the options account has a net liquidation value of $706,630 compared to $585,390 the prior week with current cash of $454,663.
As of February 24th, 2018, the jaysomaney.com equity account is flat and the account has a net liquidation of $500,000, all of it in cash.
As of February 24th, 2018, the jaysomaney.com mini account is up $3,992 or 55% and the account has a net liquidation value of $11,312 with $8,182 in cash (up significantly from the prior week).
The combined liquidation value of the three jaysomaney.com accounts as of March 10, 2018, currently stands at $1,217,942 up 57.57% overall for 2018.
$954,663 is the net cash position of all three accounts combined.
Our cash position is up around $40k from a week ago.
The S&P was higher by 3.6%
The Nazz was up 4.2%.
The Dow was up 3.3%.
FB was up 4.9% (six-week loss of 2.5%)
AAPL was up 2.1% (six-week gain of 5.4%)
Bezos (AMZN) was up 5.2% (six-week gain of 12.5%)
Flixsta (NFLX) got jiggy for 10.1% (six-week gain of 19.7%)
GOOGL was up 7.1% (six-week loss of 1.5%)
BIDU was higher by 5.2% (six-week gain of 3.0%)
BABA up 6.1% (six-week loss of 8.3%)
TCEHY higher by 3.6% (six-week loss of 4.3%)
SINA was up 3.8% (six-week gain of 1.0%).
Not a bad week for the jaysomaney.com options account with cash levels still almost 90%. Hmmmm!!
So as we can see from the above quick and dirty on FAANG/BATS, FB and Google are still dragging while Bezos, Flixsta and surprisingly, fruity are all up from six weeks ago. On the BATS side, BABA and Tencent continue to be serious laggards while BIDU and SINA are now peeking green albeit mildly so. I am convinced that there is a derivative play on the Chinese names with maybe a long FXI/short BABA and/or TCEHY going on. It will blow up soon and I expect the China names to rally like scalded apes once that happens.
Wall Street is still getting Ma and Pa to churn their account albeit by now focusing on trade wars causing the end of the world versus rate hikes armageddon for the month of February.
So what happens this week?
In my opinion, this week we will continue to hear from the ASNAL gang about how dire things are and how the FOMC will be raising rates every day and how we need to sell everything and then head for the hills and how well-meaning and kindly they (the ASNAL gang) are for giving us this "advice." They will refer to edicts from below the ocean and from the heavens above and talk about sources as high as President Trump himself as the basis for their negativity and well-intentioned "advice" however hopefully we know better than to buy the shite they have been peddling.
Keep in mind the FOMC meets next week so the shouting and chest beating and wailing will get louder as the week gets going.
In addition to the rate hike armageddon, the ASNAL/WS obfuscating/fear-mongering gang will also now focus on every single data point to convince Ma and Pa whether their argument makes sense or does not.
The usual part follows:
THERE IS NO BETTER HEDGE THAN CASH.
THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I HAD STOPPED INCLUDING THIS SECTION HOWEVER BASED ON WHAT I HAVE READ AND HEARD FROM MY INVESTORS/SUBSCRIBERS/IMAs, I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN GOING FORWARD.
Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x
Use VIX and VIX related ETF/ETNs (extremely risky as we all saw last week)
PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.
Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all.
Also, I am bringing back the following section as well after what we all went through in all of February as a reminder:
Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing.
Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time.
There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short. Please avoid those sort of "investments"
As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".
Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.
Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside.
Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice rolls.