Weekly Update Ended June 17, 2017

Last week we saw a continuation of the WS orchestrated melt-down from June 9, 2017, which was made worse by the so-called fat-finger trade when Goldman Sachs realized that their note was not having the desired effect in the markets most of that Friday morning. Of course, all of last week there was no respite from the negativity and talk about rotations/tech being over-valued led to an almost panic even among more seasoned investors/traders.  

This morning our futures are indicating a higher open as global markets are in the green and maybe distancing themselves from the hype and manipulation in our markets which is now a constant. That does not mean that we are out of the woods by any means. In fact, we saw some of that negativity this past Friday when Amazon announced the Whole Foods acquisition which is an excellent move but immediately bubblevision trotted out the boo-birds and the kindly uncles to talk down the deal.

It's still early for the sellside to come out with their reports however I am almost positive that we will get some sellsider who is already bearish (and wrong) on Amazon to come out with a negative report slamming the deal. IN addition, after the success Goldy had with their note, don't be surprised to see a "me-too" from someone else. 

"Me-too" rarely works so we have that on our side.

In the tech hatred of last week, the jaysomaney.com account took a beating and ended the week up 123% for 2017 but beat-down from the 170% we were up at the end of the prior week. The liquidation value of the account stands at $598,328 as of the close of trading this past Friday and $446,259 of that liquidation value is in cash. 

I did some buying last week despite the tech apathy, however, we will need two or three days of techland buying to see the results of those buys. You can check your inbox for details on the trades that were made this week. 

Judging by the conversatons we had in our little room last week and by the content of the emails I received last week, the following takes on an increased level of importance going forward. 

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us)

On tap for this week:

Fed heads out in droves this week:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 6/19

o   William Dudley (8:45 AM ET)

o   Charles Evans (7:00 PM ET)

  • Tuesday 6/20

o   Stanley Fischer (3:15 AM ET)

o   Eric Rosengren (8:15 AM ET)

o   Robert Kaplan (3:00 PM ET)

  • Friday 6/23

o   William Dudely speaks on Sunday (8:15 AM ET)

o   James Bullard (11:15 AM ET)

o   Loretta Mester (12:40 PM ET)


Believe it or not, but we are about 2-3 weeks away from earnings season again.

Earnings

  • Mon 6/19

o   Open:

o   Close:

  • Tues 6/20

o   Open: Lennar (LEN), Fang (SFUN)

o   Close: Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), Korn/Ferry (KFY), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Red Hat (RHT)

  • Wed 6/21

o   Open: CarMax(KMX), Winnebago (WGO), Actuant (ATU)

o   Close: Oracle (ORCL), Steelcase (SCS)

  • Thurs 6/22

o   Open: Accenture (ACN), Barnes & Noble (BKS), Commercial Metals (CMC)

o   Close: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Sonic (SONC), Synnex (SNX)

  • Fri 6/23

o   Open: Blackberry (BBRY), Finish Line (FINL)

o   Close:


For your reading pleasure:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/18/amazon-turns-the-tables-on-walmart-heres-what-the-longs-should-expect-for-monday/#6288f8c41887

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/18/finisar-on-the-state-of-the-optical-components-sector/#12956766df91

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/16/npds-big-back-to-school-prediction-regarding-amazon-versus-walmart/#10b9b79458b9

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/15/with-the-head-for-the-hills-crowd-in-control-jabils-important-implications-are-brushed-aside/#228a196c1d7b

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/14/dont-fall-for-the-obsessive-negativity-regarding-apple/#509a79d91970

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/13/to-the-dismay-of-the-darkside-alibaba-is-still-cheap/#62baec174491

Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your investments/trades/dice rolls.

Be safe,

Jay 

Weekly Update Ended June 10, 2017

Last week, as most of you know, the indices made new all-time highs on Friday morning as the bottom fell out the rest of the day as far as techland was concerned.  The contant barrage of negativity reached fever pitch all week and then on Friday morning before the opening bell we had Goldman come out with a note that didnt quite call the mega-cap tech stocks expensive but said that a lot of action was centered in those names in particular and in techland in general. Nothing earth-shaking about that at all. Growth has been where investors flock and that will not change except for the very short term as retail/ma&pa/those on margin/and the unitiated get cleaned out. That cleaning out/shaking the tree process is an absolute must from time to time, otherwise our markets wil deteriorate to a casino.

What worsened the downside on Friday was that so-called fat-fingered trade in Amazon that led to a panic as the bottom seems to fall out in techland. (see article below for my intepretation of fat-finger trades and Wall Street)

Of course, the flip side is that the kindly uncles and the always-bearish-never-wrong crowd will be insufferable this morning and till we start to see the indices start to stabilize however that too is the nature of the beast in whose belly we chose to make a living in or invest in.

This morning we have a no-name analyst from a firm looking to make a name for itself DG its rating on Apple and also its PT. ON the flip side, the analyst at the firm says he absolutely loves and remains "very bullish" on the upgrade cycle. CYA, anyone?

Our futures are off the lows of the morning but still indicating a whoosh down open which could further shake out the weak hands. I expect a couple of whooshes lower through the trading day. WE shall see how things play out. 

As far as the jaysomaney.com account, we had reached all-time highs on Friday morning however as expected got caught up in the beat-down and closed the week and year-to-date up 170% leaving the account at a liquidation value of $725,755 versus an account vale of $789,145 the prior week.

I did some buying as you all know in the whoosh down after the Amazon fat finger trade given the fact that I had offers to buy at crazy levels which would never have filled were it not for the manipulation by Wall Street. (check your emails and trade alerts on details on the buys and sells from last week please)

On tap for this week:

Earnings

  • Mon 6/12
    • Open: Hamilton Lane (HLNE)
    • Close: Cavco Industries (CVCO), Dominion Diamond (DDC), Science Applications (SAIC)
  • Tues 6/13
    • Open:
    • Close: Capstone Turbine (CPST), H&R Block (HRB)
  • Wed 6/14
    • Open: CSW Industries (CSWI), Leju Holdings (LEJU), Liberty Tax (TAX)
    • Close: Digital Turbine (APPS), Jabil (JBL), Lakeland Industries (LAKE)
  • Thurs 6/15
    • Open: Bob Evans (BOBE), Kroger (KR), Renesola (SOL), Yingli Green Energy (YGE)
    • CloseFinisar (FNSR)
  • Fri 6/16
    • Open:
    • Close:

With the beatdown on Friday and by the looks of our PM futures, a timely and continued reminder for all of us. I know most of you must be sick of reading this but I feel compelled to keep this part of the email included just so that we are all reminded to keep our positions sizes from getting too big and then ending up blowing the account up.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/10/the-convenient-connection-between-wall-street-and-fat-finger-trades/#30931a2a5941

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/05/broadcom-still-cheap-given-rapidly-rising-wall-street-earnings-estimates/#46738ebb91d6

I have been a bit remiss in my writing for forbes and seekingalpha et al however as my responsibilities are increasing at my day job (fund and IMA's and most of all here on the site) I am finding less time to write. That will be remedied shortly. I just have to better manage my time. That's all. :-)

Until next week, may the trading Gods/Goddesses smile on all your investments/trades/dice rolls.  :-)

Be safe, 

Jay

Weekly Update Ended June 3, 2017

Last weeks the major markets closed out the week at all-time highs despite the constant barrage of negativity that is being thrown at the markets. On Thursday better than expected news on the job front from ADP took the markets higher and then on Friday when our government jobs data came in weaker than expected, the markets climbed higher still. ON both days, the negative nabobs which include the perma-bears and the kindly uncles tried to paint the respective data point as negative to no avail. 

This morning we have the knife attacks in London (yet again) and also have the British general elections on June 8 to reckon with for the week. On the ER front, we are faced wth a light week and nothing of note in techland that is on my calendar. 

As far as the jaysomaney.com account, we pretty much pancaked for the week as our Chinese basket once again has started to underperform which is a shame given the potential returns these names present. However, therein lies the opportunity. The account finished the week with a liquidation value of $789,145 versus $788,449 the prior week. We started off 2017 with an account value of $268,431.

As far as what's on tap this week:

No confirmed Fed speeches as they go into their quiet period before the FOMC.

ERs this week:

Earnings

  • Mon 6/5
    • Open: JinkoSolar Holding (JKS)
    • Close: Ascena Retail Group (ASNA), Caseys General (CASY), Thor Industries (THO)
  • Tues 6/6
    • Open: HD Supply Holdings (HDS), Michaels Stores (MIK), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Freds (FRED), Lands End (LE)
    • Close: United Natural Foods (UNFI), Keysight (KEYS), REV Group (REVG), Dave & Busters (PLAY)
  • Wed 6/7
    • Open: At Home Group (HOME), Brown-Forman (BF.B), Navistar (NAV)
    • Close: ABM Industries (ABM), Greif (GEF), Tailored Brands (TLRD), Verint Systems (VRNT)
  • Thurs 6/8
    • Open: J.M. Smucker (SJM), Vail Resorts (MTN), 2Cantel Medical (CMD), FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
    • Close: VeriFone (PAY), Layne Christensen (LAYN), Limoneira (LMNR)
  • Fri 6/9
    • Open: Ferrellgas Partners (FGP)
    • Close:

An ongoing reminder to everyone:

A continued reminder for all of us. I know most of you must be sick of reading this but I feel compelled to keep this part of the email included just so that we are all reminded to keep our positions sizes from getting too big and then ending up blowing the account up.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/06/04/get-ready-for-another-google-beat-for-the-june-quarter/#18c7b47a5f2f

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/31/qualcomm-in-a-lose-lose-fight-with-apple/#5cd804487661

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/30/micron-at-a-three-and-a-half-year-high-this-monring/#2d87b5a3b4bb

Weekly Update Ended May 27, 2017

Last week markets ended the week higher as the major events included the culmination of President Trump's first trip overseas in his official capacity, the FOMC minutes and of course OPEC's big meeting in Vienna where they voted to extend the production cuts by an additional nine months. 

Yet again over the long Memorial weekend we have had North Korea fire some missiles to which the President responded with the following tweet:


North Korea has shown great disrespect for their neighbor, China, by shooting off yet another ballistic missile...but China is trying hard!


In case you are wondering my twitter handle is @jsomaney


We are now up 194% year-to-date and the account that I set up for jaysomaney.com with $100,000 in February 2016 has a current liquidation value of $788,449. We began 2017 with $268,431 in the account.


As I have asked you in our little chat room, please spread the word amongst your family, friends, and colleagues about our site and also please stress to them the fact that on our site every single trade is live, time-stamped and verifiable. Almost every other site out there will never ever put their record for scrutiny like I do and most importantly almost every other site out there seems to specialize in phantom, after-the-fact positions. That is you will have sites that will post that they are selling this position or that position for a huge gain when they never ever talked about getting into that position in the first place. Or you will have the opposite happen if a stock is down and these folks will suddenly post that they have been short the said stock.  As each and every one of you can vouch for every trade on our site, is 100% legit whether it's a good one, great one, bad one or a total loss. 


As discussed last week, I am not going to post the weekly trades here since all the subscribers are already getting real-time trade alerts whenever I make them.


I am open to going back to it if all of you like but then I would need to hear from you. Last week a few of you responded and of the few most were ambivalent.


The current week on tap (lighter Fedhead schedule)


Confirmed Fed Speeches:

 

  • Wednesday 5/31
    • Robert Kaplan (8:00 AM ET)
    • John Williams (7:30 PM ET)

ERs this week:


  • Tues 5/30
    • Open: American Woodmark (AMWD), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Multi-Color (LABL)
    • Close: Danaos (DAC), Quanex (NX)
  • Wed 5/31
    • Open: Analog Devices (ADI), Columbus McKinnon (CMCO), CAE (CAE), Michael Kors (KORS), J. Jill (JILL), Daktronic s(DAKT)
    • Close: Box (BOX), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Ollies Bargain Outlet (OLLI), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Semtech (SMTC)
  • Thurs 6/1
    • Open: Tech Data (TECD), Dollar General (DG), Ciena (CIEN), Donaldson (DCI), Express (EXPR), Mobileye (MBLY), Graham (GHM)
    • Close: Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT), Broadcom (AVGO), VMware (NMW), Cooper (COO), lululemon athletica (LULU), Workday (WDAY), Five Below (FIVE), Zumiez (ZUMZ)
  • Fri 6/2
    • Open: Hovnanian (HOV)
    • Close:

A continued reminder for all of us. I know most of you must be sick of reading this but I feel compelled to keep this part of the email included just so that we are all reminded to keep our positions sizes from getting too big and then ending up blowing the account up.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/28/kantar-data-validates-apples-laser-focus-on-india/#5abd746334ef

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4077248-even-25-percent-pop-last-two-weeks-sina-seriously-undervalued

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/28/applied-optoelectronics-makes-an-all-time-high-last-week-more-to-come/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170529#6c5e5c953485

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/23/with-iphone-assembly-just-started-last-week-in-india-apple-is-already-looking-to-expand/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170529#21feca467bd2

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/23/smart-money-saw-the-value-in-the-optical-components-sector/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170529#2a3f26fb1bb3

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4076805-notice-blackberrys-game-changer

Weekly Update Ended May 20, 2017

Last week we woke up to the news of FBI Comey's firing and then on Tuesday night reports were released in the press that President Trump had asked then-Director Comey to cease investigating former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. That led to the worst one-day drop for 2017 and also the worst one-day drop since President Trump was declared the President. So with political shocks affecting us the first part of the week, the week ended not too shabbily after all was said and done. I guess rational investors realized that the underlying fundamentals in techland and elsewhere were unchanged.

The President's first trip abroad seems to be off to a fine start with some major several hundred billion dollar deals being signed between Saudia Arabia and US companies thus far.  Of course, on the flip side, we had the North Koreans test fire another missile over this past weekend as well and I am sure the boo-birds/kindly uncles will be out and about regarding that nut-job in NK. Yes, there always is a flip side.

We are now up 133% year-to-date and the jaysomaney.com account has a current liquidation value of $625,000 and change, which is lower than the prior week thanks to the drubbing in the markets this past Wednesday and the fact that a lot of our major positions basically tread water last week. In the options world, treading water is disadvantageous as you all know.  

As I have asked you in our little chat room, please spread the word amongst your family, friends, and colleagues about our site and also please stress to them the fact that on our site every single trade is live, time-stamped and verifiable. Almost every other site out there will never ever put their record for scrutiny like I do and most importantly almost every other site out there seems to specialize in phantom, after-the-fact positions. That is you will have sites that will post that they are selling this position or that position for a huge gain when they never ever talked about getting into that position in the first place. Or you will have the opposite happen if a stock is down and these folks will suddenly post that they have been short the said stock.  As each and every one of you can vouch for every trade on our site, is 100% legit whether it's a good one, great one, bad one or a total loss. 

Some of the changes I made in our portfolio last week are as follows:

I began the week with us cashing in on our BABA 115 calls and rolling them over to a higher strike.

I also added to our position in Micron and NetEase last week. In addition, I closed out a position in Micron that was expiring this past Friday as well.

I also closed out our 80 calls in SINA at the beginning of the week and entered into the 85's ahead of the ER event. I again cashed in on the 85's at the end of the week in SINA and rolled over to a higher strike again. 

Closed out GOOGL ITMs for GOOGL OTMs.

Closed out our AAPL SOTMs to slightly further SOTMs

Entered a new position in AVGO

Closed out our OCLR short PUT position and banked the entire amount.

PS: I am not sure whether I will continue highlighting these weekly moves unless I hear from you all otherwise, since all the subscribers get the trade alerts the moment they happen anyways, buy or sell.

The current week on tap (back to a heavy Fed head schedule):

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 5/22
    • Neel Kashkari (10:00 AM ET & 6:45 PM ET)
    • Patrick Harker (10:00 AM ET)
  • Tuesday 5/23
    • Neel Kashkari (3:15 PM ET)
    • Patrick Harker (5:00 PM ET)
    • Charles Evans (9:10 PM ET
  • Wednesday 5/24
    • Neel Kashkari (6:00 PM ET)
  • Thursday 5/25
    • Robert Kaplan (6:00 PM ET)
    • James Bullard (10:00 PM ET)
  • Sunday 5/28
    • John Williams (8:15 PM ET)

Earnings

  • Mon 5/22
    • Open: Booz Allen (BAH), Cheetah Mobile (CMCM), Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)
    • Close: Agilent (A), Nordson (NDSN), Luxoft Holding (LXFT)
  • Tues 5/23
    • Open: AutoZone (AZO), Toll Brothers (TOL), Cracker Barrel (CBRL), DSW (DSW)
    • Close: Intuit (INTU), Aegean Marine Petrol (ANW), ViaSat (VSAT), HEICO (HEI), Take-Two (TTWO)
  • Wed 5/24
    • Open: Lowes (LOW), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Advance Auto (AAP), Triumph Group (TFI), Tiffany & Co (TIF), Dycom (DY), Chicos FAS (CHS)
    • Close: HP (HPQ), SpartanNash (SPTN), PVH (PVH), NetApp (NTAP), CSRA (CSRA), Williams-Sonoma (WSM),

  • Thurs 5/25
    • Open: Royal Bank of Canada (RY), TD Bank (TD), Best Buy (BBY), Medtronic (MDT), Burlington Stores (BURL), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF),
    • Close: Costco (COST), GameStop (GME), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Lions Gate (LGF.A), Marvell (MRVL), Nutanix (NTNX), Brocade (BRCD), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), DXC Technology (DXC ? only CSC results)
  • Fri 5/26
    • Open: Big Lots (BIG)
    • Close:

A continued reminder for all of us. I know most of you must be sick of reading this but I feel compelled to keep this part of the email included just so that we are all reminded to keep our positions sizes from getting too big and then ending up blowing the account up.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/19/dramexchange-data-from-this-morning-sheds-a-spotlight-on-micron-investment-opportunity/#3600cdbe58df

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/17/apple-should-soon-see-meaningful-growth-once-assembled-in-india-iphones-ready-for-sale-by-next-week/#33313f7f20f8

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/16/will-sina-slip-through-investors-fingers-yet-again/#3e19e20f5a56

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/15/comscore-data-and-your-apple-investment/#7061ee391c61

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/05/14/netease-undervaluation-could-be-short-lived/#4e32419d7e09