Weekly Update Week Ended March 11, 2017

For a change the indices closed slightly lower on the week as concerns about the FOMC meeting this coming week seemed to put a lid on the excitement of the last few of months. Rightly so, in my opinion, how the Yellen led Fed seems to be pretty hot to trot on raising rates. They seem not to have learnt from the mistake they made by prematurely raising the interest rate back in December 2015 which led to global markets collapsing in January and February of last year. Yes, this time around things are different however, its not like economic growth globally is zipping along. India and China will still grow around the 6.5% rate but things here at home will be at the 2% to maybe 2.5% GDP growth rate towards the end of 2017. Across the pond, things are a lot more uncertain with Brexit/trigger of Article 50 looming large.  

Last week, we had Finisar report earnings which were received with a big raspberry by investors and that took down our optical component investments as well. The irony in that is that both Oclaro and Applied Optoelectronics reported outstanding results of there own and guidance was even better going forward. Be that as it may, I took the opportunity to add to our investment in both those companies. 

President Trump has still to unveil his infrastructure/tax cuts/repatriation plans and techland continues to be whippy as a result. A whole lot of chopping with small baby steps higher is how I look at it. It also seems like he has totally forgotten about his Executive Order on cybersecurity as well. Cest la vie. 

We ended the week up 34% for 2017 (gave back a little ground last week in the churn and burn) and that is upsetting to me despite the outperformance compared tp virtually any other site one would use as a comparative. Things will only get better going forward from this point on. 

Keep in mind that I continue to remain very high in cash and near cash and that has been the case since inception which makes the performance gratifying ti an extent however as I say almost every week, a lot of work remains to be done and we have only just begun as far as the year is concerned. No time to rest.

This week on the earnings front we have YY, JBL, ORCL, YRD, and ADBE all reporting earnings, so the week will provide some insight even though we have no exposure to the companies  at this time.

A continued reminder for all of us.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

Not a sprint but a marathon.

For your reading pleasure.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/12/finisar-miss-and-lowered-guidance-takes-down-the-optical-components-complex/2/#5aa351852a4b

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/12/will-alibaba-ever-be-able-to-move-higher/#38f7e81a16c6

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/07/disney-acquisition-of-netflix-imperative-as-espn-viewership-continues-to-decline/#1be89b657bf8

Our futures are indicating a flat to slightly open.

Until next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a great one for you. 

Weekly Update March 05, 2017

As has been the case the last several weeks, our indices continued making new all-time highs last week, peaking on Wednesday for all three of the biggies-S&P, Dow, and the Nasdaq. I still continue to believe that we still have not seen techland come together like other sectors have and have a string of nice up days as yet. Maybe, when the corporate tax plan and cash repatriation rules are made clear by President Trump and his administration, we will see the sector run like a scalded ape.

Again, matter of when and not if.

Last week was fairly quiet for us in terms of earnings but the biggie for the account was dodging a serious bullet by bailing on our Palo Alto Networks position before the disappointing results. I had an article out on Forbes that talked about further downside in Palo Alto even after the haircut it has taken. (Link below).

Having said that, we ended the week up 48% year-to-date. Given the fact that our account is mostly cash or near-cash (shares to me is near cash since those positions can be sold in less than a heartbeat) at almost all times, I am satisfied with the performance thus far. However, the year has just begun and we have a long road ahead of us. Our Chinese stocks are still big laggards in our portfolio but  continue to believe that their time is coming. As soon as the President turns his focus on trade with China, we should start to see the clouds clear. 

Earnings season for Q4 is almost behind us however within a month we will be right back into it for Q1:17 results. We do have some off-quarter companies like Techdata, Finisar, Ciena,Verifone reporting their earnings this week in techland, so there will still be some excitement in the sector.

Last week we got called away on our Amazon equity position (I had sold calls against the underlying) and I am comfortable with that completely. In addition, we banked another huge gain in Micron (in less than 4 days) and I also opened a new position in Netflix although it was an addition to our overall position in the company. Last week, I also sold off our position in Braodcom for almost a triple although in hindsight I should have held through the earnings report. However, as you all now, there is n wudda, shudda, cudda at our firm and in hindsight every single man, woman and child on the face of this earth is a genius investor. LOL.  Cest la vie. I also closed out FB last week and some of our Apple as well. Finally, there was some repositioning on our Google last week given the volatility in techland. I also opened a new position in NVDA and added to our positions in TSLA and OCLR last week as well.

A continued reminder for all of us.

 Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Not a sprint but a marathon. 

For your reading pleasure:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/05/if-snap-is-worth-31-billion-sina-should-be-worth-at-least-triple-its-current-value/#7772ca883414

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/05/despite-the-25-beatdown-in-the-shares-last-week-palo-alto-networks-is-still-expensive/#ce8420279519

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/02/good-earnings-from-jd-com-sends-shares-to-new-52-week-highs-in-pre-market-trade/#57894b25cf4b

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/02/panic-selling-in-oclaro-creates-an-opportunity/#890c5f551384

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/02/26/the-iphone-se-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-for-apple-in-india/#176991827fb5

Our futures are indicating a lower open with the e-Minis down 6.25 and the Nazz futures indicating a lower open of 10 points. 

Weekly Update Week Ended Feb 25, 2017

The indices hit new all-time highs last week as has been the case of late. Yet again, techland continue stopping be the first source of cash at the first signs of weakness which adversely affected our weekly performance. We still have to see a solid performance in techland like we have seen in others actors since election night on November 8, 2016.

Matter of when not if in my opinion. 

We had earnings from the likes of Acacia, BIDU and Sina which went against our holdings last week and thus our portfolio ended up giving back some of our returns last week. Having said that, we are up 44% for 2017, a feat more than likely unmatched by any site like ours. None that will offer the level of transparency you get here whether the trade is great, good, bad or fugly. (In return, please recommend www.jaysomaney.com to your friends, family and colleagues) Chinese stocks continue to wax and wane as they have been for the last several months on no news (most times) and on very little news at other times. 

This week will bring us earnings from the likes of AVGO, JD, PCLN among others.

Last week, I added to AMZN, rolled over FB, opened a new position in TSLA, and ends dthe week trying to add several names (past Friday) with orders not getting filled. Hopefully, will get an opportunity to add/open additional positions this week. 

A couple of quicky housekeeping items. Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing.

Not a sprint but a marathon. 

For your reading pleasure.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/02/26/the-iphone-se-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-for-apple-in-india/#7a1d58e17fb5

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/02/24/after-bendgate-apple-now-faces-meltgate/#562fed72742c

Our futures are indicating a slightly lower open as investors get a bit of cold feet syndrome thanks to Presidents Trump's speech tomorrow in Congress. 

Weekly Update February 19, 2017

We had a decent week ending on February 17 with all three indices making all time highs yet again. Techland is still not seeing the sort of fervor the financials did once President Trump was elected the winner the night of November 8, 2016. 


Our jaysomaney.com account is now worth $402,90, up 50% in 2017 or gains of $134,477 in little over 6 weeks. Not shabby, no?

Please spread the word among others in your sphere of influence. (Thank you)

We had earnings from NetEase last week which was a total blowout and confirmed my big picture thesis that Chinese stocks will report very strong growth in 2017 and should also be among the best performers in terms of returns this year. Of course, at the moment, our Chinese investments are just sitting around going up and down on now real news. We have just had Sohu report a strong set of numbers just an hour or so ago. So, we have BABA, NTES and now SOHU. This week will bring us earnings from SINA on Wednesday night and BIDU on Thursdaypost the closing bell. 

Last week we rolled over some of our Apple positions, added a higher strike to Oclaro, sold off our NTES position (unfortunately before the ER pop although still made 3.5x our money so no crying-LOL-Eva hung tough-kudos), added to NFLX and short sold AMZN 845 calls against our long equity position.

On the economic data front we have the FOMC minutes out on Wednesday, Harker speaking today at noon and Kashkari this morning as well and Williams this afternoon, and Lockhart on Thursday am.

On the earnings front we have SINA and BIDU, ACIA on Wednesday and Thursday (read above) from our holdings. We also have TSLA, SQ, HP and FIT reporting tomorrow after the close and INTU, HPE, on Thursday afternoon.

For your reading pleasure:



Our futures are indicating a slightly higher open, with the e_mins up 5.25 and Nazz futures higher by 14 points respectively.

I hope all of you had a great long weekend with your loved ones and see you in the room in a bit.

Weekly Update Feb 12, 2017

We had a good week last week although I do not believe that techland is still being embraced like say the financials were when we had the Trump victory related run up in those names, Earnings for the mega caps this ER season were a mixed bag with Apple and Netflix coming though strong, Google and Amazon having an issue or two and Facebook seeing a relatively tepid reaction to their respective earnings. 

We ended the week up 32% compared to the Nasdaq which is up 6.5% thus far in 2017. Last week, we had a smallish bounce in FANF, Apple and a few of the Chinese names as well. Albeit, relatively muted.  No runaway action in any of our positions...YET.

Last week was a big week for us in terms of rollovers-FB, BIDU, PANW, JD, NFLX, MU, NVDA were a few positions where I either cashed in or rolled over to further dated strikes/expirations. (see closed trades and check your trade alerts for details). If you would like the weekly activity detailed out in the weekly recap, please let me know. If a majority ask for a weekly recap of every trade I will be more than happy to do one in these weekly emails.

This week we have heavy Fed activity on Tuesday and Wednesday with Fed boss Janet Yellen scheduled to speak on both days.

In terms of earnings, we don't have any of our portfolio companies reporting but there are a few that could potentially impact the rest of techland with the Kid aka CSCO on Wednesday considered a bellwether albeit at one time. Not much else on the earnings front as far as our account is concerned. 

President Trump hinted at some big news on the tax front last week and let's see if he comes through this week or will the issue continue to drag on for a couple of additional weeks. His meeting with Japanese PM Abe over the weekend seems to have gone swimmingly which is a good thing for both countries. 

For your reading pleasure:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/02/13/the-sellside-could-be-finally-waking-up-to-an-apple-acquisition-that-matters/#74cf96074a69

Our futures are indicating a slightly higher open with a little over 2 hours to go before the bell this morning.

I hope you had a great weekend with your loved ones and see you in our little room in a bit.