Weekly Update Ended Dec 1, 2017

Hard to believe but we are 26 days and hours away from 2018. This year has flown by faster than any year before and we are now into the final push for 2017. Fake news stories are all over the place and none more so than those in the financial media space. Given the facts that markets are at all-time highs the world over, even a hint of anything negative has investors scurrying for cover. 

Has anyone noticed the fact that the scurrying is mostly done by investors that trade on our exchanges and then maybe, the effect is felt in other markets? So, what does that mean?  Two things, either we have the world's most naive and gullible investors who fall for every shite story the fake news artists put out more than likely in cahoots of the darkside which by now is more than likely besides itself with frustration. The other is the fact that our markets are led around and at the mercy of the algos which see the negative headlines and then just react. There is no rational thought process, just the focus on the negative event/headline/story.

Call me a conspiracy theorist if you will but I am increasingly convinced that most of the fake news artists/journalists/websites have hidden agendas and/or have been paid off by the darksiders to get the markets lower. Unfortunately for investors (LT or ST or any other kind in between), the beatdowns are so fierce albeit senseless, the damage done in one negative session can take several weeks to recover from. However, that is the playing field we have earmarked for ourselves to making a living in, so its part and parcel of what we do every single day. 

One has two choices, maintain rolling weekly hedges and hope for a payoff when the fake news artists float a whopper out there or maintain high levels of cash. None are optimal strategies given the fact that using the former likely means 90% of the time those hedges will expire worthless (assuming puts) and maintaining high levels of cash has an opportunity cost (cash sitting idle) that has to be overcome. Almost like being asked to pick one's poison.

Cest la vie, mes amis.

Last week, the indices finished at yet another all-time high and so did our main account while the mini-account is also up nicely in the two months or so since I funded it.

For the week, the FAANG names took a beatdown and the indices closed at ATHs except for the Nazz which was down a bit:

NASDAQ down 0.6%. 

DOW up 2.9% (fins rallied like scalded apes last week)

S&P up 1.5%

Zuck down 4%

AAPL down 2%

Bezos down 2%

NFLX down 5%

GOOGL down 3%

Among the BATS names:

Baidu was up 6%

Jack was down 8%

TCEHY gave back 9%

and SINA was hammered down by 12%

As one can imagine, the jaysomaney.com (main) account was hit hard given the double whammy of being an all-options trading vehicle and then tech-only and is now up "just" 209% year-to-date versus 261% from a week ago and 244% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $815,240 (plus the $4,662 in the mini-account) which gives us $819,902 in net liquidation with $639,705 of that in cash (includes cash in the mini-account), down from the prior week as I took advantage of the fake news specials.

The mini account is once again down 7% in the two months or so since I funded it with an initial starting amount of $5,000 (taken from the main account) and of the $4,662 in liquidation value in that account, $4,040 of that is in cash. Plenty of cash in both accounts to end the year with a bang provided the markets trade on fundamentals and not on fake news. Unfortunately, Chuckles has been staggering like a drunken sailor on the fake news which is now an almost daily phenomenon and on days when the fake news specialists/artists are taking a breather, Chuckles seems to barely make any upwards progress.

This next part is getting repetitive, I know, but it helps answer those email queries which is why I leave it in.

Cash in the accounts is admittedly high and I am still looking for optimal deployment of that cash. Given the fact that not only are our indices at all-time highs but so are global indices at all-time highs, a bit of caution might not be a bad thing at all. However, having said that, there are still a few stocks that are still cheap despite their absolute performance. 

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go, as always, with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).

Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)

Buy QQQ Puts

Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer

Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

Thankfully on the Fed head front, we don't have any confirmed speeches but I am sure the various heads will find a way to make headlines even when not required.

Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:
U.S.

Monday (12/4)

Factory Orders (10:00): -0.4% expected

Durable Goods Orders (10:00)

Durables Ex Transportation (10:00)

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (10:00)

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (10:00)

 

Tuesday (12/5)

Trade Balance (8:30) -$45.4b expected

Markit US Services PMI (9:45): 55.3 expected

Markit US Composite PMI (9:45)

ISM Non-Manf. Composite (10:00):59.0 expected

 

Wednesday (12/6)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

ADP Employment Change (8:15): 190k expected

 

Thursday (12/7)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

 

Friday (12/8)

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30): 210k expected

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (8:30): 15k expected

Unemployment Rate (8:30): 4.1% expected

Wholesale Inventories MoM (10:00)

U. of Mich. Sentiment (10:00): 98.7 expected

 

International

Monday (12/4)

UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (4:30)

Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Services (19:30)

Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (19:30)

China Caixin China PMI Composite (20:45)

China Caixin China PMI Services (20:45)

 

Tuesday (12/5)

Germany Markit Germany Services PMI (3:55)

Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (3:55)

Eurozone Agg Markit Eurozone Services PMI (4:00)

Eurozone Agg Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (4:00)

UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (4:30)

UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (4:30)

Eurozone Agg GDP SA QoQ (5:00)

Eurozone Agg GDP SA YoY (5:00)

 

Wednesday (12/6)

Germany Factory Orders MoM (2:00)

Germany Factory Orders WDA YoY (2:00)

 

Thursday (12/7)

Germany Industrial Production SA MoM (2:00)

Germany Industrial Production WDA YoY (2:00)

UK Halifax House Prices MoM (3:30)

UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year (3:30)

Japan GDP SA QoQ (18:50)

Japan GDP Annualized SA QoQ (18:50)

Japan GDP Deflator YoY (18:50)

 

Friday (12/8)

UK Industrial Production MoM (4:30)

UK Industrial Production YoY (4:30)

UK Manufacturing Production MoM (4:30)

UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn (4:30)

UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn (4:30)

UK Trade Balance (4:30)

China CPI YoY (20:30): 1.8% expected

China PPI YoY (20:30): 5.8% expected


Earnings season is almost over but we still have a few interesting techland names reporting this week.


Earnings

  • Mon 12/4
    • Open: GW Pharma (GWPH)
    • Close: Ascena Retail Group (ASNA), Coupa Software (COUP)
  • Tues 12/5
    • Open: Bank of Montreal (BMO), AutoZone (AZO), Toll Brothers (TOL), HD Supply Holdings (HDS), Lands End (LE), J. Jill (Jill)
    • Close: Restoration Hardware (RH), Dave & Busters (PLAY), Oxford Industries (OXM), Veeva Systems (VEEV)
  • Wed 12/6
    • Open: American Eagle (AEO), Brown-Forman (BF), Fred;s (FRED), H & R Block (HRB)
    • Close: Broadcom (AVGO), Grief (GEF), Keysight (KEYS), lululemon athletica (LULU)
  • Thurs 12/7
    • Open: Dollar General (DG), JinkoSolar Holding (JKS) Ciena (CIEN) GMS (GMS)
    • Close: United Natural Foods (UNFI), Science Applications (SAIC), Cooper (COO), Finisar (FNSR), American Outdoor Brands (AOBC), Cloudera (CLDR)
  • Fri 12/8
    • Open:
    • Close:

 

COUP, VEEV, AVGO, JKS, CIEN, CLDR


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice rolls.


Stay safe

jay

Weekly Update Ended Nov 25, 2017

I hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving weekend with family, loved ones, friends, and food. Now its back to the grind and the final push into year-end begins starting this morning. No rest for the weary, no rest for the wicked, no rest for any of us.

Last week, the indices finished at yet another all-time high and so did our main account while the mini-account is also up nicely in the two months or so since I funded it.

For the week, the FAANG names also continued higher as did the indices:

NASDAQ up 1.6%

DOW up 0.08%

S&P up 0.09%

Zuck up 2.1%

AAPL up 2.8%

Bezos up 5%

NFLX up  1.3%

GOOGL up 2%

Among the BATS names:

Baidu was up 4.2%

Jack Ma was higher by 3.3%

TCEHY climbed 2.7%

and SINA was up 2.7%

In comparison, the jaysomaney.com (main) account ended nicely higher on the week and is now up 261% year-to-date versus 244% from a week ago and 243% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $952,290 (plus the $6,938 in the min-account) which gives us $959,228 in net liquidation with $689,005 of that in cash (includes cash in the mini-account), up a bit from the prior week.

The mini account is now up 39% in the two months or so since I funded it with an initila starting amount of $5,000 (taken from the main account) and of the $6,938 in liquidation value in that account, $4,040 of that is in cash. Staying true to my strategy of a decade and a half. "Dance with the one that brung you," so to speak.

This next part is getting repetitive, I know, but it helps answer those email queries which is why I leave it in.

Cash in the accounts is admittedly high and I am still looking for optimal deployment of that cash. Given the fact that not only are our indices at all-time highs but so are global indices at all-time highs, a bit of caution might not be a bad thing at all. However, having said that, there are still a few stocks that are still cheap despite their absolute performance. 

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go, as always, with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).

Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)

Buy QQQ Puts

Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer

Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

We are back to a week heavy with Fedhead speeches as follows:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 11/27

o   Neel Kashkari (6:30 PM ET)

o   William Dudley (7:00 PM ET)

  • Tuesday 11/28

o   William Dudley (9:15 AM ET)

o   Jerome Powell (10:00 AM ET)

  •  Wednesday 11/29

o   William Dudley (8:30 AM ET)

o   Janet Yellen (10:00 AM ET)

o   John Williams (1:50 PM ET)

  • Thursday 11/30 

o   Robert Kaplan (1:00 PM ET)

  • Friday 12/01

o   James Bullard (9:05 AM ET)

o   Robert Kaplan (9:30 AM ET)


On the economic data front, we also have a full plate:


Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (11/27)

New Home Sales (10:00): 615k expected

Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (10:30): 24.0 expected

 

Tuesday (11/28)

Wholesale Inventories MoM (8:30)

FHFA House Price Index MoM (9:00)

Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10:00): 123.8 expected

Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (10:00): 14 expected

 

Wednesday (11/29)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

GDP Annualized QoQ (8:30): 3.3% expected

Personal Consumption (8:30)

GDP Price Index (8:30): 2.2% expected

Core PCE QoQ (8:30)

Pending Home Sales MoM (10:00): 1.1% expected

 

Thursday (11/30)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Personal Income (8:30): 0.3% expected

Personal Spending (8:30): 0.2% expected

PCE Core MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

PCE Core YoY (8:30): 1.4% expected

Chicago Purchasing Manager (9:45): 62.0 expected

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

 

Friday (12/1)

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (9:45)

ISM Manufacturing (10:00): 58.3 expected

ISM Prices Paid (10:00): 67.5 expected

Construction Spending MoM (10:00): 0.5% expected 

Finally, on the ER front, we have the following companies scheduled to report which includes:

Earnings

  • Mon 11/27
    • Open: Tuniu (TOUR)
    • Close: MTS Systems (MTSC), Tech Data (TECD)
  • Tues 11/28
    • Open: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Nomad Foods (NOMD), Momo (MOMO)
    • Close: China Lodging (HTHT), Marvell (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK)
  • Wed 11/29
    • Open: Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Tiffany & Co (TIF), Atkore International (ATKR), Photronics (PLAB)
    • Close: PVH (PVH), Synopsys (SNPS), Workday (WDAY), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Jack in the Box (JACK), Box (BOX)
  • Thurs 11/30
    • Open: Kroger (KR), Toronto- Dominion Bank (TD), Michaels Stores (MIK), Barnes & Noble (BKS), Express (EXPR), Perry Ellis (PERY)
    • Close: VMware (VMW), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Nutanix (NTNX), Five Below (FIVE), Zumiez (ZUMZ), Ambarella (AMBA), Yext (YEXT)
  • Fri 12/01
    • Open: Genesco (GCO), American Woodmark (AMWD), Oaktree Strategic Income (OCSI)
    • Close:

 

Until next week's update, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments, and coin tosses.


Stay safe, 

jay

Weekly Update Ended Nov 18, 2017

Last week was another week where the indices were basically flat to slightly higher on continued fallout from the mess in Washington. The Nasdaq finished higher on the week thanks to that spectacular rally this past Thursday but the Dow and S&P were lower on the week. 

For the week among the FAANG names:

Apple finished lower by $4 and change;

Bezos was up $4 and change;

Googly was down about $10

Zuck was higher by a few dimes

Flixsta was up a buckeroo.

However as all of you know a flat week plays havoc in options-land and so it was gratifying to see that our portfolio hung in there, thanks to gains in the smaller Chinese companies. I am thrilled that our mini-account is now up 30% in two months and while the absolute dollars is not much to write home about, its the returns all of us should be focused on. To be up 30% in a month and a half is not easy. Take a look at the performance of 95% of the mutual funds out there.

Moving on to the China basket:

Within the BATS quartet:

Baidu was up a couple of bucks on the week;

Jack (BABA) was down a buck and small change,

Tencent (TCEHY) added about $2.50/share

and SINA was higher by half a buck or so.

With ER season now mostly behind us wth the exception of a couple of names in our China basket, the focus will now turn to Holiday sales and of course the political mess in Washington and across the pond with Brexit and German political issues.

Our futures are indicating a lower open, as usual, with e-mins down 2.25 and Nazz futures off by 2.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 244% year-to-date versus 243% from a week ago and 234% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $905,246 (plus the $6,483 in the min-account) which gives us $911,729 in net liquidation with $671,915 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up quite a bit from the prior week.

Cash in the account is admittedly high and I am still looking for optimal deployment of that cash. Given the fact that not only are our indices at all-time highs but so are global indices at all-time highs, a bit of caution might not be a bad thing at all. However, having said that, there are still a few stocks that are still cheap despite their absolute performance. 

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).

Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)

Buy QQQ Puts

Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer

Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

We are light on the economic data front this week as well on the ER front too and thankfully we have zero scheduled Fed speeches this week.

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (11/20)

Leading Index (10:00): 0.6% expected

 

Tuesday (11/21)

Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (8:30)

Existing Home Sales (10:00): 5.41m expected

 

Wednesday (11/22)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Durable Goods Orders (8:30): 0.3% expected

Durables Ex Transportation (8:30): 0.4% expected

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (8:30): 0.3% expected

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

U. of Mich. Sentiment (10:00): 98.0 expected

 

Thursday (11/23)

Markets Closed for Thanksgiving

 

Friday (11/24)

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (9:45)

Markit US Services PMI (9:45)

Markit US Composite PMI (9:45)


Earnings

  • Mon 11/20
    • Open: Bitauto Holdings (BITA) Already declared and in our lttle chat room
    • Close: Vipshop (VIPS), ZTO Express (ZTO), Agilent (A), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Intuit (INTU), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
  • Tues 11/21
    • Open: Lowes (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Jacobs (JEC), Analog Devices (ADI), Burlington Stores (BURL), Dycom (DY), DSW (DSW), Daktronics (DAKT)
    • Close: HP (HPQ), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Salesforce (CRM), GameStop (GME), Baozun (BZUN), Guess? (GES)
  • Wed 11/22
    • Open: Deere (DE)
    • Close:
  • Thurs 11/23
    • Open:
    • Close:
  •  Fri 11/24
    • Open:
    • Close:

Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our tradesm investments and dice throws.

Stay safe

Jay

Weekly Update Ended November 11, 2017

Last week was a flat to slightly lower week in techland as most of the mega-caps are done with their Q3:17 earnings and investors are allowing for a bit of digestion and contemplation before deciding on the path ahead. 

That's not to say that last week did not have its shares of wins and losses. Roku and our very own Nvidia were the big winners in techland after both blew past earnings estimates while SWKS would have to be classified as the dud last week among many others in techland.

POTUS's trip to the East is over with and he comes back to the quagmire that is DC where tax reform posturing is in full swing between the House and the Senate and Dems and Reps. Heaven help us all.

Our futures are indicating another lower open (3rd day in a row) as Wall Street continues to milk the tax reform situation as much as it can and for as long as it can. 

JD has reported numbers a bit ago and a nice beat on the bottom and in-line on the top-line. Shares indicated higher by a couple of bucks.

The doltish management team at Qualcomm is getting ready to reject Broadcom's takeover offer which was exactly what I expected given the ineptitude and self-serving nature of most corporate America management teams.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 243% year-to-date versus 234% from a week ago and 203% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $903,897 (plus the $4,066 in the min-account) which gives us $907,963 in net liquidation with $647,735 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up quite a bit from the prior week.

Cash in the account is admittedly high and I am looking for optimal deployment of that cash.

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets backed off all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher going forward. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

This week we return to a heavy Fedhead schedule with the following speakers scheduled:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Tuesday 11/14
    • Charles Evans (3:05 AM ET)
    • James Bullard (8:15 AM ET)
  • Wednesday 11/15
    • Chares Evans (3:00 AM ET)
  • Thursday 11/16
    • Lael Brainard
    • Loretta Mester (9:10 AM ET)
    • Robert Kaplan (1:10 PM ET)
  • Friday 11/17
    • Lael Brainard


On the economic data front, here's what's on tap for the week ahead:


Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (11/13)

Monthly Budget Statement (14:00): -$50.0b expected

 

Tuesday (11/14)

NFIB Small Business Optimism (6:00): 104.5 expected

PPI Final Demand MoM (8:30): 0.1% expected

PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

PPI Final Demand YoY (8:30)

PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (8:30)

PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY (8:30)

 

Wednesday (11/15)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

CPI MoM (8:30): 0.1% expected

CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

CPI YoY (8:30): 2.0% expected

Empire Manufacturing (8:30): 26.2 expected

Retail Sales Advance MoM (8:30): 0.1% expected

Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (8:30)

Total Net TIC Flows (16:00)

Net Long-term TIC Flows (16:00)

 

Thursday (11/16)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (8:30): 24.1 expected

Import Price Index MoM (8:30): 0.4% expected

Industrial Production MoM (9:15): 0.5% expected

Capacity Utilization (9:15): 76.3% expected

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

 

Friday (11/17)

Housing Starts (8:30): 1183k expected

Building Permits (8:30): 1242k expected

 

Earnings for the week include (but not limited to):


Earnings

  • Mon 11/13
    • Open: JD.com (JD), Tyson Foods (TSN), Aecom Tech (ACM)
    • Close: PQ Group (PQG), WideOpenWest (WOW), MTS Systems (MTSC), Netshoes (NETS)
  • Tues 11/14
    • Open: TJX (TJX), Home Depot (HD), ARAMARK Holdings (ARMK), Advance Auto (AAP), Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS), Cheniere Energy (LNG)
    • Close: Beazer Homes (BZH), YY (YY), Esco Tech (ESE)
  • Wed 11/15
    • Open: Target (TGT), Sally Beauty (SBH), Meritor (MTOR), JA Solar (JASO)
    • Close: Cisco Systems (CSCO), L Brands (LB), Netease (NTES), Smart & Final Stores (SFS)
  • Thurs 11/16
    • Open: Wal-Mart (WMY), Best Buy (BBY), BEST inc. (BSTI), Viacom (VIAB), JM Smucker (SJM), Manchester United (MANU) 
    • Close: Applied Materials (AMAT), Gap (GPS), Ross Stores (ROST), Post (POST), Splunk (SPLK)
  • Fri 11/17
    • Open: Foot Locker (FL), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Buckle (BKE), Hibbet Sporting (HIBB), Destination XL Group (DXLG)
    • Close:


We have just had numbers from JD (see the chatroom) and have YY tomorrow and NTES the day after that.


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice throws.

Be safe, 
jay

Weekly Update Ended Nov 4, 2017

Last week was a good week in techland as the continued sudden tech love continued from the prior week as great numbers from the likes of Amazon, Google, et al in the prior week were followed by equally great numbers from the likes of Apple and Alibaba, etc.

I got a few emails from our chat-room mates asking why AAPL was not up more. My take is that Apple rallied about $10 per share prior to the number and about $5 post, which is a $75 billion increase in cap in a matter of a week.  Not shabby by any means at all. 

Alibaba, on the other hand declined by a few points post its own ER and that was probably due to what the POTUS will do when he is in China this week and of course a sell-the-news reaction as well there. Singles day is on Saturday, so let's see how the stock reacts leading up to the weekend.

Our futures are flattish with the e-mins down half a point while the Nazz futures are up 3.50.

The YUGE news this am is the hostile bid by Broadcom to take over Qualcomm for $130B including debt. AVGO will pay $70 per share for QCOM and the bid is good even if QCOM does not complete its own NXPI takeover. Shares of AVGO are up $4/share, NXPI is down slightly while QCOM is up a couple of dollars in early PM activity.

For once the chatter ahead of the weekend turned out to be true. 

Seems like a win-win all around. 

Let's see how the doltish management team at QCOM responds to the hostile offer.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 234% year-to-date versus 203% from a week ago and 188% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $880,647 (plus the $4,547 in the min-account) which gives us $8885,194 in net liquidation with $630,125 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up quite a bit from the prior week.

Cash in the account is admittedly high and I am looking for optimal deployment of that cash.

The moment I find an opportunity that I like, I shall do so. If not, then not, I guess.  I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

The markets have made all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher as well. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS NEW FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 


This week on the Fed-head front we have the following confirmed speeches scheduled;

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 11/06
    • William Dudley (12:10 PM ET)

On the economic data front, here is what's on tap this week:


Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (11/6)

 

Tuesday (11/7)

 

Wednesday (11/8)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

 

Thursday (11/9)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

Wholesale Inventories MoM (10:00)

 

Friday (11/10)

U. of Michigan Sentiment (10:00): 100.4 expected

Monthly Budget Statement (14:00)


On the ER front, we have the following:


Earnings

  • Mon 11/6
    • Open: CVS Health (CVS), Cardinal Health (CAH), Sysco (SYY), Mylan (MYL), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Michael Kors (KORS) 
    • Close: Plains All American (PAA), Plains GP (PAGP), Tenet Healthcare (THC), Priceline (PCLN), Avis Budget (CAR), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Skyworks (SWKS), Intl Flavors (IFF)
  • Tues 11/7
    • Open: US Foods (USFD), Emerson (EMR), Coca-Cola European Partners (CCE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Valeant Pharma (VRX), Dean Foods (DF),
    • Close: DXC Technology (DXC), Cimarex (XEC), Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), Marriott (MAR), Take-Two (TTWO), Fossil (FOSL)Snap (SNAP), Zillow (Z), Blue Buffalo (BUFF)
  • Wed 11/8
    • Open: Humana (HUM), Performance Food Group (PFGC), MGM Resorts (MGM), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Wolverine (WWW)
    • Close: Manulife Financial (MFC), 21st Century Fox (FOXA), CenturyLink (CTL), ROKU (ROKU), Hologic (HOLX), 
  • Thurs 11/9
    • Open: Magna (MGA), Johnson Controls (JCI), AstraZeneca (AZN), Macys (M), Kohls (KSS), Office Depot (ODP), Coty (COT), Time (TIME), Party City (PRTY)
    • Close: NVIDIA (NVDA), Walt Disney (DIS), Nordstrom (JWN), Hertz (HTZ), Lions Gate (LGF)
  • Fri 11/10
    • Open: ArcelorMittal (MT), JC Penney (JCP), CAE (CAE)
    • Close:

In techland, the biggie for us is NVDA on Thursday post the closing bell, and SWKS after the close tonight.


As always, the above list is not exhaustive and as we move through our work week, I will try and provide a daily list.


Until next week, may the trading GOddesses and Gods smile on all our trades, investments and dice rolls.


Be safe

Jay