Weekly Update Ended April 22, 2017-Up 37% YTD

We crept up a little last week and finished up 37% YTD after a whole of churn and burn without really going anywhere.

Again as I have stated to you, the comeback will be fast and furious, please however, make sure you keep your positions in size with your overall accounts. 

Last week we had continued noise on the war front (three arenas-NK, Afghanistan and Syria) and to throw fat to the fire, we had additional noise about the election sin France which were going to be a run-off as I kept saying late last week. That is what its going to be after all is said and done. Macron and Le Pen on May 7 is the next date.

Please keep in mind the kindly uncles and the bears will now be talking about armageddon on May 7, throwing in worries about Italy being worse than France and God knows what else. Just be careful you don't get sucked in by the noise however always keep a ear open to what they say. 

After all, information is information, matters not whether its positive or negative. 

I am slowly executing on my plan tor educe the cash holdings in the account that I have carried since the account was founded last February and I continue to expect putting that cash to use when I find an opportunity, be it short-term or long.

This week we have the following Fed Heads on tap--

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

 

  • Monday 4/24
    • Neel Kashkari (11:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET)

Friday 4/28

    Patrick Harker (2:30 PM ET)


    On the ER front we are smack-dab in the middle of reporting season"

    Earnings

    • Mon 4/17
      • Open: Philips (PHG), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Halliburton (HAL), Hasbro (HAS), NuStar Energy (NS), 
      • Close: Express Scripts (ESRX), Whirlpool (WHR), Alcoa (AA), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Barrick Gold (ABX), 
    • Tues 4/18
      • Open: Ericsson (ERIC), Valero Energy (VLO), Novartis (NVS), Centene (CNC), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Caterpillar (CAT), Coca-Cola (KO), DuPont (DD), 3M (MMM), McDonalds (MCD), Eli Lilly (LLY), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Biogen (BIIB), Xerox (XRX), Corning (GLW), Baker Hughes (BHI), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Nielsen (NLSN), AK Steel (AKS),
      • Close: AT&T (T), Capital One (COF), Chubb (COF), Texas Instruments (TXN), U.S. Steel (X), Universal Health (UHS), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Panera Bread (PNRA), Logitech Intl SA (LOGI),
    • Wed 4/19
      • Open: Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), Boeing (BA), Anthem (ANTM), Proctor & Gamble (PG), United Tech (UTX), PepsiCo (PEP), General Dynamics (GD), Northrup Grumman (NOC), Waste Management (WM), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Alaska Air (ALK), Twitter (TWTR), Six Flags (SIX)
      • Close: Amgen (AMGN), PayPal (PYPL), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Equinix (EQIX),
    • Thurs 4/20
      • Open: AU Optronics (AUO), Ford Motor (F), Comcast (CMCSA), UPS (UPS), Dow Chemical (DOW), American Airlines (AAL), Raytheon (RTN), Southwest (LUV), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Celgene (CELG), Sirius XM Radio (SIRI), Under Armour (UAA), Dominos Pizza (DPZ), GrubHub (GRUB),
      • Close: Banco Santander (BSAC), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Starbucks (SBUX), Western Digital (WDC), Fortive (FTV)
    • Fri 4/21
      • Open: Honda Motor (HMC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Motors (GM), Chevron (CVX), Sanofi (SNY), UBS AG (UBS), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), V.F. Corp (VFC), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), IDEXX Labs (IDXX)
      • Close:

    A continued reminder for all of us.

     Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

    Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

    There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

     Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

    Not a sprint but a marathon.

    For your reading pleasure:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/20/apple-and-amazon-make-strange-bedfellows-in-the-chip-business/#53fa975a1666

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/17/google-makes-a-big-land-grab-in-reno-very-close-to-teslas-gigafactory/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170424#182ad9e650f7

    Until next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a profitable one for you. 

    Weekly Update Week Ended April 15, 2017

    To say we have seen the best of times and the worst of times in these past two weeks is an understatement. I will be the first to admit that the events of the last two weeks or so (Syria, Afghanistan and North Korea) caught me wrong-footed but on the flip side I will come back equally quickly as well.

    Markets were looking for an excuse to go down and the re-opening of war-like situations on three fronts provided the reason. As always, techland remains the first and only go-to source for cash or the first area to take a hit which is how its always been but also remains the first choice for growth. Probably the only choice. 

    We are up 8% YTD as of Thursday's closing levels and yet again our futures are indicating a slightly lower open as continued uncertainty over NK looms large and continues to provide an excuse to go lower. On the flip side (there always is a flip side-LOL) it could be setting up well going into techland ER starting with NFLX tonight. 

    We shall see.

    I continue to carry very high levels of cash in the account but will make a move this week and maybe as early as today even. We shall see what the day holds. 

    AS far as Fed heads this week--

     

    Confirmed Fed Speeches:

     

    • Tuesday 4/18
      • Esther George (9:00 AM ET)
    • Wednesday 4/19
      • Eric Rosengren (12:30 PM ET)
    • Friday 4/21
      • Neel Kashkari (9:30 AM ET

    On the ER front we have the following companies on tap starting with NFLX tonight post the closing bell. 


    • Mon 4/17
      • Open: M&T Bank (MTB)
      • Close: United Continental (UAL), Netflix (NFLX), Celanese (CE), Barracuda Networks (CUDA)
    • Tues 4/18
      • Open: Bano of America (BAC), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnsons & Johnson (JNJ), Goldman Sachs (GS), Progressive (PGR), Omnicom (OMC), Grainger (GWW), Harley-Davidson (HOG), GNC Holdings (GNC)
      • Close: IBM (IBM), Rogers Comms (RCI), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Lam Research (LRCX)
    • Wed 4/19
      • Open: Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Labs (ABT), U.S. Bancorp (USB), BlackRock (BLK), TD Ameritrade (AMTD)
      • Close: American Express (AXP), Qualcomm (QCOM), CSX (CSX), eBay (EBAY), Steel Dynamics (STLD), United Rentals (URI)
    • Thurs 4/20
      • Open: Verizon (VZ), ABB Lyd (ABB), Travelers (TRV), Danaher (DHR), BNY Melon (BK), PPG Industries (PPG), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), KeyCorp (KEY), Snap-On (SNA), IMAX (IMAX)
      • Close: Visa (V), Mattel (MAT), E*TRADE (ETFC),
    • Fri 4/21
      • Open: General Electic (GE), Honeywell (HON), Schlumberger (SLB), NextEra Energy (NEE), Stanley Black 7 Decker (SWK), KC Souther (KSU)

    If anything that has served as a reminder regarding what I have been saying forever it is the events pf the last two weeks--

    PLEASE KEEP YOUR POSITIONS SMALL (or large) ENOUGH TO STAY IN LINE WITH THE SIZE OF YOUR ACCOUNT. 

    I have been doing this for a long long time and although I hate giving back the gains we have seen, I have no doubt about coming back. More importantly, high risk and very high reward is how I have always invested unless it's the IMA part of our business which is tailored specifically to the client. So hang in tight and before you know it the account will be ahead of where it was two weeks ago.  

    A continued reminder for all of us.

     Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

    Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

    There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

     Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

    Not a sprint but a marathon.

    For your reading pleasure:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/17/critics-of-apple-making-a-big-acquisition-dont-get-it/#3eb1d1403216

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/15/dmv-permit-will-require-apple-to-shed-light-on-plans-regarding-autonomous-vehicle-technology/#6a7250573815

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/15/netflix-opens-techland-earnings-season-on-monday-sentiment-mostly-negative/#6a42c31b6643

    Until the next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a profitable one for each of you.

    Weekly Update Week Ended April 1, 2017

    Last week we had the Dow finish higher by 0.03%, the S&P added 0.08%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.4%. On the week, Google was up $12, Apple was higher by $3, NFLX added almost $6, Amazon shot up $41 while FB added about $2 per share respectively. Our Chinese basket and our fiber optic plays were mixed mostly.

    Having said that, the jaysomaney.com account is now up 61% year-to-date compared to 36% the prior week. A decent week for us despite the back and forth on the HCA issue and the beginnings of the China/US trade issue coming front and center. 

    This week will bring us plenty of noise and shouting and copious tears and sweaty-palmed hand-wringing from the kindly uncles and the darksiders who will not stop on the US-China trade front. My take is after all is said and done, the two heads of state will find a way to resolve the situation fairly amicably since neither side can afford to get into a "spitting" contest with the other. 

    Last week we started the week off by selling our Tesla calls for almost a triple (two seperate occasions), sold Amazon call against our long stock position which ends dup getting our shares called away (heavier cash position now), sold and rolled our Netflix calls (extended expiration), added to Google calls (big position there-if stock starts moving), added to AAOI calls, added to OCLR calls and finally re-entered a position in Tesla calls.

    The cash levels in the jaysomaney.com account continue to be very high but for now I am okay with it. We shall see.

    This week once again brings us a respite from the Fed heads but we do have the following confirmed events regarding the Fed:

    Confirmed Fed Speeches:

     

    ?         Monday, 4/3

    o   Jeffrey Lacker (5:00 PM ET)

    ?         Wednesday, 4/5

    o   Fed Meeting Minutes from March

    On the earnings front we have nothing in techland but we do have the usual plethora of economic data both here at home and overseas.

    NTAP has an analyst meeting on Wednesday is the only event of note on tap this week.

    I know all of you are sick of reading this but I feel I remiss if I don't mention it in every weekly missive to all of you just so that it stays with us through the trading week. 

    A continued reminder for all of us.

     Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

    Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

    There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

     Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

    Not a sprint but a marathon.

    For your reading pleasure.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/03/tesla-comes-through-with-record-delivery-numbers-disappointing-the-darkside/#1b0a1d7d7100

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/02/shares-of-google-surprisingly-finish-up-on-the-week-but-are-a-laggard-in-2017/#1d6a75613666

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/02/apples-assembled-in-india-dream-almost-reality/#429ad1f32880

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/04/02/not-yet-blackberry-time-despite-the-progress/#1d9b307d613f

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/31/driving-tesla-into-this-weekends-expected-q1-delivery-and-production-numbers-release/#164baeac780f

    As is the norm our early futures are indicating a flat to slightly lower open despite global markets mostly higher to start the week.

    Until the next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a profitable one for each of you.

    Weekly Update Week Ended March 25, 2017

    Last week we had all three of our major indices end on a negative note. The Nasdaq, where I live, eat and breathe (LOL) was down 1.1% on the week, the Dow down 1.1% and the S&P was down 1%.  GOOGL dropped $37 points on the YouTube fiasco. AAPL ended the week up $0.65 per share. AMZN down $11, NFLX down about $3 despite making an all-time high on Tuesday

    This week will bring us all sorts of noise from Wall Street pundits/gurus/swamis and my latest group of prognosticators-("The Kindly Uncles") waxing negative on the HCA issue on Friday. I think it's a positive and Prez Trump should use the lack of passage to find a way to get rid of Paul Ryan. In addition, we will have plenty of noise about GN triggering Article 50 this week as well.

    Despite the negative tone to the markets last week, our optical components investments enjoyed a good week as did our Chinese investment albeit to a lesser extent. FANG continued churning in a couple of cases but was mostly lower on the week. Apple was up a hair. 

    However, we still ended the week on a positive note albeit by 2% and are now up 36% for 2017 versus 34% the prior week. 

    Last week we bought and sold Google puts, added to Apple, reduced Micron by half, added NFLX, opened a new position in BIDU and SINA,and added to NVDA. 

    I continue to be very high in cash and near cash (66% of the overall account value) as I have always been from day 1.  That could change however we will see how the opportunities develop going forward. 

    Yet again, this week brings us no respite from the Fedhead parade with the following on tap:

    Confirmed Fed Speeches:

     

    ?         Monday 3/27

    o   Charles Evans (1:15 PM ET)

    o   Dennis Kaplan (6:30 PM ET)

    ?         Tuesday 3/28

    o   Esther George (12:45 PM ET)

    o   Dennis Kaplan (1:00 PM ET)

    ?         Wednesday 3/29

    o   Charles Evans (9:20 AM ET)

    o   Eric Rosengren (11:30 AM ET)

    o   John Williams (1:15 PM ET)

    ?         Thursday 3/30

    o   Loretta Mester (9:45 AM ET)

    o   Dennis Kaplan (11:00 AM ET)

    o   John Williams (11:15 AM ET)

    ?         Friday 3/31

    o   Neel Kashkari (10:00 AM ET)

    o   James Bullard 10:30 AM ET)


    We have nothing on the earnings front of interest except for Blackberry which will report on Friday and has interest for me from a perverse point of view. Namely, if BBRY is able to report a better set of numbers, how good will the sector be doing. 

    Also, on Wednesday HPE will host an analyst meeting and we could get an idea on how enterprise business is doing and then on Thursday, Akamai will hold its analyst day as well. (Hmm)

    A continued reminder for all of us.

     Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

    Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

    There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

     Remember together we will all get there, wherever the tree may be for each of us individually.

    Not a sprint but a marathon.

    For your reading pleasure.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/26/google-does-the-stock-have-a-problem/#44db31ba190a

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/26/seems-like-the-wall-street-hype-machine-desperately-wants-the-markets-down-what-should-you-do/#aecb27d2529f

    As always, our futures are indicating a whoosh down open with early futures at lows of the day as Wall Street tries to spin the Healthcare debacle into the end of the world. 

    Cest la vie.

    Until next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a great one for you.

    Weekly Update Week Ended March 18, 2017

    Yet another week where the indices mainly churned as the FOMC took up most of last weeks trading. Our interest rates were raised by 0.25% and the FOMC maintained a relatively benign stance for 2017 and said they continue to remain data dependent. The former (rate hike) was expected but many were expecting a more hawkish tone which did not happen. That's not to say that the Fed heads won't keep yammering about tightening any chance they get but it did mean that when the time came they chose to remain dovish.  

    In addition, the Brexit/Article 50 trigger and its fallout still remains an issue and a potential overhang.

    Last week, we saw a bounce back in our optical investments and even the Chinese stocks had a slightly uppish end to the week. FANG continues to churn while trending slightly higher. Last week I established new positions in Apple, Netflix, added to our position in AAOI, rolled over some AMZN, and re-stablished a position in MU (reporting earnings on Thursday).

    We ended last week flat as a pancake (up 34%) despite the rather furious (it seemed at times) movement within our portfolio as markets pretty much marched in place despite the noise. 

    We also have had a bit of noise this weekend from the G20 Summit with our government saying that  change will come to trade agreements soon. I have mentioned my thoughts on the issues in our little chat room already so will not repeat the stuff here.

    Please be aware that I continue to be very high in cash and near-cash although I expect that position could change anytime I find an opportunity that warrants changing our allocations. 

    This week we have all the Fed empty vessels up and about (seems like it)--?         


            Monday 3/20

    o   Charles Evans (1:10 PM ET)

    ?         Tuesday 3/21

    o   Esther George (12:00 PM ET)

    o   Loretta Mester (6:00 PM ET)

    ?         Thursday 3/23

    o   Janet Yellen (8:00 AM ET)

    o   Neel Kashkari (12:00 PM ET)

    ?         Friday 3/24

    o   Charles Evans (8:00 AM ET)

    o   James Bullard (8:05 AM ET)

    o   John Williams (8:30 AM ET)

    On the earnings front we have MU on Thursday post the closing bell which is the sole representative of major techland earnings and also a company that we are currently long. (could change though).

    A continued reminder for all of us.

     Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Mot importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

    Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on any one single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

    There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

     Remember together we will all get there, wherever the tree may be for each of us individually.

    Not a sprint but a marathon.

    For your reading pleasure. 

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/19/jabil-circuit-results-last-week-gave-apple-investors-a-second-heads-up-in-a-row/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170320#35f14e9b5b26

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/17/tesla-overhang-disappears-but-negativity-increases/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170320#53d198f54a76

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2017/03/13/intels-acquisition-of-mobileye-makes-a-strong-case-for-a-far-higher-nvidia-valuation/?utm_source=followingweekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170320#21e1ec736334

    As has been the norm the last several weeks, our futures are indicating a lower start to the week.

    Until next week, I hope each and every trade/investment is a great one for you.

    Be safe,