Weekly Update Ended Oct 14, 2017

Last week was another week where all three of our indices saw all-time highs, intra-day and closing as well. There was no respite from the Fedheads, geopolitical issues and the mess that is DC, however, with a global economic recovery tenderly underway, almost all major global markets are trading at multi-year highs if not all-time highs.

I finally found, three names that I like a lot to open up trading in our $5,000 mini-account. Hopefully, over time, I will be able to demonstrate to subscribers that one does not need a fortune to make a nice amount of money. Of course, "nice amount of money" can mean different things for different people. I am talking within reason. IN any case, of the three positions in the mini-account, we are up 33% in one, flat in the second and down 25% in the third. I tried to add to the third position on Friday but was unable to get a fill. We shall see what this week brings us. 

Our futures are indicating a flat open for the S&P and slightly higher for the Nazz but we still have over 2 hours before the opening bell. Overseas markets were bullish in Asia but are treading water in the EC as they await our opening cues.

Tonight after the closing bell we will get earnings from NFLX and it will more than likely set the tone for techland, at least for the next day or so. The shares are trading at all-time highs however, they are trading just $7-$8 per share higher (as of Friday's closing levels) than where they traded soon after the earnings report for the June quarter.

We shall see what the day brings us ahead of the report tonight.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 200% year-to-date versus 191% from a week ago and 178% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $790,402 (plus the $5,045 in the min-account) with $569,022 of that in cash (includes cash in the min-account), up slightly from the prior week. The markets have made all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher as well. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

I remain very high in cash as I have been all year long, however, such high cash levels is the best hedge that one can have as well and prevents panic-induced sell moves when the market seems like the end of the world is imminent.

As is the norm, I received a few emails this past week and over the weekend, wondering when I would use my cash and again, I understand that my cash levels are very high and the account would be worth a lot more (2x, 3x, who knows) if I would be all in. However, I am comfortable with the amount of cash we have right now in the account. At some point, I will find a home for that money. In case I don't, it's not a big deal to me.

For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

Please note that in the fund I maintain hedges and spend about 1% per week on those hedges. I am far more aggressive in the fund and the returns there are able to bear the costs of the hedges that I maintain. Incidentally, 90% of those hedges expire worthless.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS NEW FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

No breather from the Fed this week either although its a lighter schedule than the last few weeks:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 10/16
    • Neel Kashkari (9:00 PM ET)
  • Wednesday 10/18
    • Stanley Fischer
    • William Dudley and Robert Kaplan (8:00 AM ET
  • Friday 10/2
    • anet Yellen
    • Loretta Mester (2:00 PM ET)

We are heavy on the economic data once again this week:

Economic Data (*all times ET)
U.S.
Economic Data:

Monday (10/16)

Empire Manufacturing (8:30): 20.4 expected

 

Tuesday (10/17)

Import Price Index MoM (8:30): 0.5% expected

Industrial Production MoM (9:15): 0.2% expected

Capacity Utilization (9:15): 76.1% expected

Total Net TIC Flows (16:00)

Net Long-term TIC Flows (16:00)

 

Wednesday (10/18)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

Housing Starts (8:30): 1180k expected

Building Permits (8:30): 1220k expected

 

Thursday (10/19)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (8:30): 20.3 expected

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

Leading Index (10:00): 0.1% expected

 

Friday (10/20)

Existing Home Sales (10:00): 5.30m expected

 

Most importantly, earnings season kicks off today with Netflix as mentioned above. 

Earnings

  • Mon 10/16
    • Open:
    • Close: Netflix (NFLX), Celanese (CE), IDEX Corp (IEX), Brown & Brown (BRO), Equity Lifestyles Partners (ELS), Sonic (SONC), Badger Meter (BMI), KMG Chemicals (KMG)
  • Tues 10/17
    • Open: UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Progressive (PGR), CSX (CSX), Grainger (GWW), Harley-Davidson (HOG)
    • Close: IBM (IBM), Lam Research (LRCX), Canadian Pacific (CP), Select Comfort (SCSS), Interactive Brokers (IBRK), Navient (NAVI), Cree (CREE), Hancock Holding (HBHC)
  • Wed 10/18
    • Open: Abbott Labs (ABT), U.S. Bancorp, (USB), Supervalu (SVU), ASML (ASML), M&T Bank (MTB), Northern Trust (NTRS), UniFirst (UNF), MGIC Investment (MTG)
    • Close: United Continental (UAL), American Express (AXP), Alcoa (AA), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Crown (CCK), eBay (EBAY), United Rentals (URI), Crown Castle (CCI)
  • Thurs 10/19
    • Open: Nucor (NUE), Danaher (DHR), KeyCorp (KEY), Taiwan Semi (TSM), Verizon (VZ), Philip Morris International (PM), Travelers (TRV), SAP AG (SAP), Genuine Parts (GPC), BNY Melon (BK), PPG Industries (PPG), Snap-On (SNA)
    • Close: PayPal (PYPL), NCR Corp (NCR), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Hawaiian Holdings (HA), E*TRADE (ETFC), athenaHealth (ATHN), Proofpoint (PFPT), Del Taco (TACO)
  • Fri 10/20
    • Open: General Electric (GE), Schlumberger (SLB), Ericsson (ERIC), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Honeywell (HON), Baker Hughes (BHGE), Manpower (MAN), Synchrony Financial (SYF), SunTrust Banks (STI)
    • Close:


Until next week, may the trading Godesses and Gods smile on all your investments and trades.


Be safe

jay

Weekly Update Ended Oct 7, 2017 and Mini-Account Trading

Last week was another good week in techland in particular and also in global markets in general despite the overhanging tensions in Washington and on the international geo-political front. I think the tensions are going to be with us for a while and the markets will react to them, up or down, based on the severity of the new/chatter/fake news. 

Our mini account is a go and has been a go and this weekend I found three opportunities to start off the investment in that account.

As one can reasonably expect, the positions taken in this account will also be take in the bigger (main) account as well. After all, the opportunity is there and the size of the account does not matter. 

I have one more small procedural/logistical issue to sort out with the BSBs which will be done by the time we get the fills-hopefully.

I spent most of the weekend (free time that is) between watching the games and looking for these opportunities.

Now, we shall see about getting fills on those opportunities once the markets open for trade.

However, please remember there might still be a few growing pains, so if any of you see anything, please, please email jatin@jaysomaney.com immediately, so we can get it corrected. 

Please also remember that you have to be a subscriber to receive the trade alerts for the Mini account. Those on free trials will not be receiving those trades and I apologise in advance for that policy. No exceptions there whatsoever. Also, please refrain from referring to the trade/position in the mini account in the chatroom for obvious reasons. Feel free to email me if you have any questions regarding the trade/trades in the Mini account at jay@jaysomaney.com

Our futures are indicating a higher open this morning with the e-mins up 4.25 but off the HOMs.

As far as I am concered, the futures stopped being an accurate predictor of the market action at least a decade ago.

We shall see.

Overseas markets were most positive in Asia and are also mostly positive across the pond.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 191% year-to-date versus 178% from a week ago and 169% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $767,838 with $567,592 of that in cash, down a bit from the prior week. The markets have made all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher as well. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

I remain very high in cash as I have been all year long and it's burning a hole in my pocket, however, such high cash levels is the best hedge that one can have as well and prevents panic-induced sell moves when the market seems like the end of the world is imminent. For those of you that would prefer to spend the money on hedges, I have my usual suggestion below and you should feel free to buy that protection on the downside if you feel the need.

Ultimately the choice is always yours, long, short or straddling the fence.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favour. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS NEW FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

Again this week we are up to our necks in Fedheads--these guys/gals dont know when to quit, I guess:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Tuesday 10/10
    • Neel Kashkari (10:00 AM ET)
    • Robert Kaplan (8:00 PM ET)
  • Wednesday 10/11
    • Charles Evans (7:15 AM ET)
  • Thursday 10/12
    • Jerome Powell (10:30 AM ET)
  • Friday 10/13
    • Eric Rosengren (8:30 AM ET)
    • Charles Evans (10:25 AM ET)
    • Robert Kaplan (11:30 AM ET)
    • Jerome Powell (1:00 PM ET)

We also have the usual slate heavy on economic data which is taking on increased importance as the Fed is yet again hot to trot on a rate hike at the December meeting.


Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (10/09)

 

Tuesday (10/10)

NFIB Small Business Optimism (6:00): 104.8 expected

 

Wednesday (10/11)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

 

Thursday (10/12)

PPI Final Demand MoM (8:30): 0.4% expected

PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (8:30): 0.1% expected

PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

PPI Final Demand YoY (8:30): 2.6% expected

Continuing Claims (8:30)

PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (8:30) 2.1% expected

PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

 

Friday (10/13)

CPI MoM (8:30)

CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (8:30)

CPI YoY (8:30)

Retail Sales Advance MoM (8:30)

Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (8:30)

Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (8:30)

U. of Mich. Sentiment (10:00)


Finally, earnings season for Q3:17 begins this week as well with the money center banks on Thursday-

Earnings

  • Mon 10/09
    • Open:
    • Close:
  • Tues 10/10
    • Open:
    • Close: Barracuda Networks (CUDA), VOXX Intl (VOXX)
  • Wed 10/11
    • Open: Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK), BlackRock (BLK), Fastenal (FAST)
    • Close:
  • Thurs 10/12
    • Open: Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Dominos Pizza (DPZ), Lindsay Corp (LNN)
    • Close: EXFO (EXFO)
  • Fri 10/13
    • Open: Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Del Friscos Restaurant (DFRG), First Horizon (FHN), PNC (PNC) 
    • Close:

 Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your investments and trades.

Be safe

jay

Weekly update ended Sep 30, 2017

Last week was a good one for global equity markets, including our own, despite the continued chaos in Washington, the madness between NK and us, and a boatload of Fed speakers all week long. We also spent all week recovering from the bruising drop to begin last week as NK tensions reached fever pitch over the prior weekend albeit only in the US markets. Asian markets, where the greatest fallout would be if NK did anything, rode the stupidity with aplomb. Of course, that is the price we have to pay for the playing field we have chosen which is the most manipulated markets in the world bar none.

Our Mini account is all set to go and the backstreet boys have worked feverishly to get stuff up and running. Kudos to them. However, please remember there might be a few growing pains, so if any of you see anything, please, please email jatin@jaysomaney.com immediately, so we can get it corrected. 

Please also remember that you have to be a subscriber to receive the trade alerts for the Mini account. Those on free trials will not be receiving those trades and I apologise in advance for that policy. No exceptions there whatsoever. Also, please refrain from referring to the trade/position in the mini account in the chatroom for obvious reasons. Feel free to email me if you have any questions regarding the trade/trades in the Mini account at jay@jaysomaney.com

As soon as I find an opportunity I will pull the trigger there. Could happen today or take a few days/weeks. We shall see.

Our futures are indicating a slightly uppish open but we have 5 hours still to go before the opening bell. 

Apple shares actually finished higher by 1.5% last week, however, no solace/comfort there whatsoever yet. The chatter continues to be overwhelmingly negative as it has always been whenever the company unveils new products. 

Overseas markets are mostly positive although most major Asian markets were closed for local holidays today. China will be closed all week and Hong Kong will open tomorrow but be closed again on Thursday.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly higher on the week and is now up 178% year-to-date versus 169% from a week ago and 173% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $731,811 with $588,371 of that in cash, down a bit from the prior week. The markets have made all-time highs last week and I expect that they will continue to stutter step higher as well. My goal is to finish the year with a sharp move higher as well as far as our portfolio is concerned.

I am very high in cash as I have been all year long and it's burning a hole in my pocket, however, such high cash levels is the best hedge that one can have as well and prevents a panic-induced move when the market seems like the end of the world is imminent.

We shall see.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favour. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS NEW FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

This week, yet again, we get no respite from the Fedheads up and about. As an added treat, we also have a boatload of economic data to deal with including the all-important NFP data to end the week (Friday).

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 10/02
    • Robert Kaplan (2:00 PM ET)
  • Wednesday 10/04
    • Janet Yellen (2:15 PM ET)
    • James Bullard (3:00 PM ET)
  • Thursday 10/05
    • John Williams (9:30 AM ET)
    • Patrick Harker (10:00 AM ET)
    • Esther George (4:30 PM ET)
  • Friday 10/06
    • Raphael Bostic (9:15 AM ET)
    • William Dudley (12:15 PM ET)
    • Robert Kaplan (12:45 PM ET)

Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (10/2)

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (9:45)

ISM Manufacturing (10:00): 

ISM Prices Paid (10:00): 

Construction Spending MoM (10:00): 

 

Tuesday (10/3)

 

Wednesday (10/4)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

ADP Employment Change (8:15): 

Markit US Services PMI (9:45)

Markit US Composite PMI (9:45)

ISM Non-Manf. Composite (10:00): 

 

Thursday (10/5)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Trade Balance (8:30): 

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

Factory Orders (10:00): 

Durable Goods Orders (10:00)

Durables Ex Transportation (10:00)

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (10:00)

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (10:00)

 

Friday (10/6)

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30): 

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (8:30): 

Unemployment Rate (8:30): 

Wholesale Inventories MoM (10:00)


Earnings

  • Mon 10/2
    • Open: Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)
    • Close:
  • Tues 10/3
    • Open: Lennar (LEN), Paychex (PAYX), AZZ (AZZ)
    • Close: NovaGold Resources (NG)
  • Wed 10/4
    • Open: 
    • Close:
  • Thurs 10/5
    • Open: Constellation Brands (STZ), Intl Speedway (ISCA)
    • Close: Costco (COST), Yum China (UMC), Helen of Troy (HELE)
  • Fri 10/6
    • Open:
    • Close:


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your investments and trades.


Be safe

jay

Weekly Update Ended Sep 23, 2017

Last week we had the "big" FOMC meeting come and go with its usual whimper with the Fed electing to begin with its QT program and leaving the dot plot unchanged but adopting a slightly more dovish stance on long-term equilibrium interest rates (lowered from 3% to 2.75%). Lots of the usual noise and hand-wringing and chest beating and wailing over the event by the negative nawabs and the always-short-never-wrong gang as usual but at the culmination, much ado about nothing. 

The back and forth between "the dotard" and "rocket man" continued last week although the Prez found a new target to go after towards the weekend--The NFL. All I will say is "WOW". Politics is not my favorite topic and never will be.

A week left for the backstreet boys to have that sub-account system automated with the rest of the site so as to enable seamless trading in that account as well. The main reason for that sub-account is to show the many subscribers who have written to me that they cannot match the performance of the site account because their funds are a lot smaller than what the site account was funded with. In fact, my hope is to demonstrate that a smaller account has a far greater shot at success if managed correctly than one that is large. Keywords are managed correctly. Yes, one has to pick and choose the size (quantity) or then mimic every trade made by the site account. In some cases that would not be possible given the relative size of the subscribers' accounts, so we will do it together with a separate account that I will fund with $5,000 from the main jaysomaney.com site account. In addition, the sub-account (have to find a name for it and an OPEN to suggestions from all of you) will incorporate the system I have been fine-tuning for eons. Please remember that there will be times both the accounts will have the same trades, however, I will specify that in the trade alert (sub-only) itself (hope is that the system that the backstreet boys are designing will pick that up). Again, the back-end is a work-in-progress so bear with me/us there till we get it right.

Please remember that those trades will be sent out to subscribers only and trial accounts will not be able to take advantage of those trades. The trial accounts will continue to receive trades from the jaysomaney.com site account absolutely free for the two weeks trial period.

I am hopeful that we will have the system integration set by October 1 but just another reminder that having it set-up by the first of next month does not mean that a trade will also come that day itself. The trade will come when the opportunity presents itself. With a funded capital of just $5k, those trades will be a lot different from the trades in the jaysomaney site account.jaysomaney site account.

Our futures are indicating a subdued open with techland once again functioning as the ATM of choice if one looks ar pre-market indicators. Apple continues to roll-over and I have a decision to make there imminently. The shares are off 5% last week and look to continue to slide today as well. The chatter on the new phones is almost overwhelmingly negative while the X remains an unknown at the moment. 

Overseas markets are mostly lower today with the Nikkei being the only major market in the Asian region that finished up on the day. EC markets are mostly flat as they await our opening bell.

The jaysomaney.com account ended slightly lower on the week and is now up 169% year-to-date versus 173% from a week ago and 164% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $721, 258 with $522,387 of that in cash, down a bit from the prior week. I am very pleased with the performance year-to-date but not pleased at all given the fact that we have been range-bound the last couple of months. 

The weekly performance was adversely affected mostly thanks to the slide in Apple last week. Like I said above, I have a decision to make pretty quickly here.

As always, please check your inboxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS NEW FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3xproshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

This week we have the entire Fedhead parade to contend with:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Monday 9/25

o   William Dudley (8:30 AM ET)

o   Charles Evans (12:40 PM ET)

o   Neel Kashkari (6:30 PM ET)

  • Tuesday 9/26

o   Loretta Meester (9:30 AM ET)

o   Janet Yellen (11:50 AM ET)

o   Raphael Bostic (12:30 PM ET)

  • Wednesday 9/27

o   Neel Kashkari (9:15 AM ET)

o   James Bullard (1:30 PM ET)

o   Eric Rosengren (5:30 PM ET)

  • Thursday 9/28

o   Esther George (9:45 AM ET)

  • Friday 9/29

o   Patrick Harker (11:00 AM ET)


On the economic data front, it's also a full plate:


Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:
U.S.

Monday (9/25)

Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (8:30)

Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (10:30): 13.0 expected

 

Tuesday (9/26)

New Home Sales (10:00): 600k expected

Conf. Board Consumer Confidence: (10:00): 119.3 expected

Richmond Fed Manufact. Index: (10:00): 13 expected

 

Wednesday (9/27)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

Durable Goods Orders (8:30): 0.9% expected

Durables Ex Transportation (8:30): 0.3% expected

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (8:30): 0.4% expected

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (8:30)

Pending Home Sales MoM (10:00): -0.5% expected

 

Thursday (9/28)

GDP Annualized QoQ (8:30): 3.2% expected

Personal Consumption (8:30)

GDP Price Index (8:30): 1.0% expected

Core PCE QoQ (8:30)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Wholesale Inventories MoM (8:30)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

 

Friday (9/29)

Personal Income (8:30): 0.3% expected

Personal Spending (8:30): 0.2% expected

PCE Core MoM (8:30): 0.2% expected

PCE Core YoY (8:30): 1.4% expected

Chicago Purchasing Manager (9:45): 57.5 expected

U. of Mich. Sentiment (10:00): 95.5 expected


Earnings still not completely behind us as the stragglers and off-quarter companies will ne reporting as follows:


Earnings

  • Mon 9/25
    • Open:
    • Close: Synnex (SNX), Red Hat (RHT)
  • Tues 9/26
    • Open: Darden Restaurants (DRI), HIS Markit (INFO), FactSet (FDS)
    • Close: NIKE (NKE), Micron (MU), Landec (LNDC)
  • Wed 9/27
    • Open: Worthington (WOR), Actuant (ATU)
    • Close: Jabil (JBL), Thor Industries (THOR), Pier 1 Imports (PIR), Progress Software (PRGS)
  • Thurs 9/28
    • Open: Accenture (CAN), Rite Aid (RAD), ConAgra (CAG), McCormick (MKC), Ferrellgas Partners (FGP), BlackBerry (BBRY), Vail Resorts (MTN), Omnova Solutions(OMN), AngioDynamics (ANGO)
    • Close: KB Home (KBH), SMART Global (SGH), CalAmp (CAMP)
  • Fri 9/29
    • Open:
    • Close:


Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your investments/trades/dice rolls/coin tosses.


Be safe, 

Jay

Weekly Update Ended Sep 16, 2017 (Latest On New Trading System AS Well)

First of all, I am sorry for missing the last update. Had a lot on my plate last weekend and Monday was an "under the weather" start for me. No excuses-it was what it was.

We have a lot to deal with this week which has been the norm in techland for eons now. The biggest event we have to consider is the FOMC meeting culminating on Wednesday and everyone is once again focused on the Fed dot plot to see if there has been any change to the one additional rate hike scenario planned for 2017 and also an update on QT slated to begin this month. My take is, expect no change on either front. The Fed will not tip their hand on an additional rate hike for 2017 given that we have 3 1/2 months still left and thus far they seem hot to trot on the QT front. We also have a BOJ meeting this week to contend with.   

Over the weekend, President Trump tweeted that he put in a call to President Moon of South Korea to inquire about "rocket man" aka North Korea's Kim Jong-un. LOL. That is an apt name for the North Korean leader.   

Just wanted to give all of you a quick update on the new trading system I am putting in place.

First and foremost, I am going to make it for subscribers-only. My apologies to trial users in advance.

Second, the model is ready to go however we are having some logistical issues on the back-end given the fact that the site is currently fully automated (performance updates/trade alerts/link to model, etc. etc.) and I wanted to set up a separate sub-account with a starting amount of $5,000 which would be linked with the current jaysomaney.com account. I chose such a low starting amount because I have received so many emails from subscribers and non-subs alike that their performance lags the sites because their accounts are smaller. The smaller sub-account should be able to demonstrate that account size is not what matters but what matters is the absolute returns whether one starts out with $5k or $500k. If at the end of the year, a $5k account is worth $10k and the $500k account is worth $1 million, both the performances are more than likely unmatched by almost any other service/site/fund/ that is out there. In addition, both would be up 100% for the year.

As soon as the backstreet boys have found a way to seamlessly set up the account so as to not make the accounting/performance keeping a nightmare, we will be good to go. 

Thirdly and most importantly, since the trades in this small account will be sent out to subscribers only, it will be sent out as a separate alert which might just simply be called "sub-account alert" or something along those lines.

I will keep all of you posted as we progress on that front.

FYI, I have just updated by Jatin that we can get the sub-account set-up, integrated with the rest of the site (especially the trade alerts and performance integration) and ready to go by Oct 1, 2017.

Please remember that does not mean that I will have a trade by that date. The trade will come when the opportunity presents itself. 

Last week continued to be one that was stagger step however the S&P and Dow managed new ATH's last week despite the incessant negativity and the mess in DC and continued back and forth between NK and the rest of the world. 

Asian markets enjoyed a positive start to the week with almost every major Asian market closing in the green for the day. The Kospi actually managed toc lose at a 4-month high despite the threats from North Korea. The EC markets are also positive thus far.

Our futures are indicating a slightly higher open although we all know how easy they are to manipulate. 

The jaysomaney.com account ended up on the week and is now up 173% year-to-date versus 164% from a week ago and 203% two weeks ago. The liquidation value as of this past Friday is now at $732,322 with $527,577 of that in cash, up from the prior week. I am very pleased with the performance year-to-date but not pleased at all given the fact that we have been range-bound the last couple of months. 

As always, please check your in-boxes for a list or trades that I made last week.

Here we go with the usual:

Please keep your positions in size with your account size (value). Most importantly please remember that I am running a marathon here and not a sprint. I am in no hurry whatsoever for any position and thus will not enter a position unless I feel the risk/reward is stacked in my favor. Yes, I will occasionally have positions work against me despite the risk/reward prior to the trade but if I was batting a thousand, none of us would be in our little room. We would all be on our own private islands. Even more important for all of us to remember that trades and opportunities will come no matter what the markets are doing. 

Please, please don't roll the dice and don't bet on anyone single position without keeping the size relative to your overall account. I promise you even 1 or 2 call options at a time add up to spectacular returns over time. 

There is nothing worse than seeing someone (new or experienced) blow up his/her own account by going "all in", long or short.  Please avoid those sort of "investments" As my dad used to tell me all the time, "Rome wasn't built in a day".

Remember together we will all get there, wherever that may be for each of us individually.

Not a sprint but a marathon. (This is the most important takeaway for all of us) Will always hold true as far as I am concerned no matter what anyone else thinks on the outside. 

THIS NEXT SECTION IS NEW FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO-- I WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO LEAVE THIS SECTION IN PERMANENTLY.

Use the same hedges as last week as these hedges should provide you the most bang for your money all things being equal. Buy any one or buy them all depending on the size of your account and the extent you wish to hedge your account(s).
Go Long SQQQ or buy SQQQ Calls (SQQQ is proshares ultrashort QQQ-leveraged 3x)
Buy QQQ Puts
Buy Puts on any of the FANG names (most volatile) or short the names individually if you prefer
Go long SDS or buy SDS Calls (SDS are the proshares ultrashort S&P500--leveraged 3x

PLEASE NOTE THESE HEDGES ARE JUST MY SUGGESTIONS. AS SUBSCRIBERS VERY WELL KNOW, FOR ME, CASH IS (and has always been) THE BEST HEDGE. IF NOT CASH, IT'S EQUITY SINCE THAT CAN BE CONVERTED TO CASH IN SECONDS.

Remember, it is you who hits the buy button or sell button each and every trade and there are no exceptions there at all. 

We have a lot to deal with this week including the FOMC, so here goes:

Confirmed Fed Speeches:

  • Friday 9/22
    • John Williams (6:00 AM ET)
    • Esther George (9:30 AM ET)
    • Robert Kaplan (1:30 PM ET)


Economic Data (*all times ET)

Economic Data:

U.S.

Monday (9/18)

Total Net TIC Flows (16:00)

Net Long-term TIC Flows (16:00)

 

Tuesday (9/19)

Housing Starts (8:30): 1185k expected

Building Permits (8:30): 1215k expected

Current Account Balance (8:30): -108.5b expected

Import Price Index MoM (8:30): 0.3% expected

 

Wednesday (9/20)

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00)

Existing Home Sales (8:30): 5.48m expected

FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound): 1.25% expected

 

Thursday (9/21)

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30)

Continuing Claims (8:30)

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (8:30): 16.2 expected

FHFA House Price Index MoM (9:00)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9:45)

Leading Index (10:00): 0.2% expected

 

Friday (9/22)

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (9:45)

Markit US Services PMI (9:45)

Markit US Composite PMI (9:45)


Earnings

  • Mon 9/18
    • Open:
    • Close: Hill International (HILL), Steelcase (SCS)
  • Tues 9/19
    • Open: Apogee Enterprise (APOG), AutoZone (AZO), Yingli Green Energy (YGE)
    • Close: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), FedEx (FDX), AAR Corp (AIR), Copart (CPRT)
  • Wed 9/20
    • Open: General Mills (GIS)
    • Close: Herman Miller (MLHR)
  • Thurs 9/21
    • Open: Manchester United (MANU), Student Transportation (STB)
    • Close: Presidio (PSDO)
  • Fri 9/22
    • Open: CarMax (KMX), Finish Line (FINL)
    • Close:

Until next week, may the trading Goddesses/Gods smile on all your investments/trades/dice rolls/coin tosses.


Be safe, 

Jay